http://nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1257880&postcount=2731
http://nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1339302&postcount=2785
http://nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1263110&postcount=2743
http://nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1358057&postcount=2807
http://nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1354590&postcount=2801
http://nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1364756&postcount=2825
http://nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1379474&postcount=2829
http://jubakpicks.com/
http://www.aaii.com/
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/
пʼятниця, 15 квітня 2011 р.
WTSAO about stocks trading 7
I noticed that there are certain industries that are on the uptrend no matter what the overall market is doing. I run daily scans for new stocks and its a pain to find out the industry for that company.
So I went to NASDAQ to get the stock list from AMEX, NYSE, and NASDAQ. Their files contain the industry information for their stocks. StrategyDesk contains a notes column that you can store your own information.
After some digging I found that StrategyDesk stores notes information in a notes.xml file in the StrategyDesk root folder. I studied the schema and wrote some macros to create the tags the notes.xml file like. I then dumped all the information for the exchanges into an Access database table with field names that matched the notes.xml schema. I then dumped the data using the XML feature to create an XML file that was very close to the notes.xml schema.
A few seach and replaces and I now have a notes.xml file that contains the industry for almost every stock in the three exchanges. A few stocks didn't have an industry name so they will so up as "n/a".
Now when you run your screens, the notes column will pop up the industry for that particular stock. You can then group them by industry to gauge what people are interested in. This is also helpful when your managing portfolios with a large number of stocks. You can group your stocks to see which industries are doing well and which ones are no longer trending.
Attached is a notes.txt that I renamed for the attachment. Its really a notes.zip file.
1. Download file and unzip
2. Backup your current notes.xml file in the StrategyDesk root folder in case you want to back out these changes.
3. Drop the new notes.xml file in the root folder.
Now when you type in a stock or dump a list of stocks, the industry names will appear next to them when you show the notes column. A few will have "n/a" because the original file from NASDAQ didn't have that info. You can updates the notes manually for those stocks. The updated information will be added to the notes file.
(I updated the file to use the industry names from the AAII database which has more listing. This file should cover 9800+ stocks. This file is 50% larger than the previous, same zip format renamed as .txt)
After using it for a while, I noticed that sometimes StrategyDesk has problems reading the notes.xml file if the notes column gets changed manually. I'll get a parse error sometimes. It could be a buffer over run error. If I don't change the notes.xml file, everything is fine. Just keep a backup copy of the file somewhere to replace the notes.xml if it gets corrupted.
So I went to NASDAQ to get the stock list from AMEX, NYSE, and NASDAQ. Their files contain the industry information for their stocks. StrategyDesk contains a notes column that you can store your own information.
After some digging I found that StrategyDesk stores notes information in a notes.xml file in the StrategyDesk root folder. I studied the schema and wrote some macros to create the tags the notes.xml file like. I then dumped all the information for the exchanges into an Access database table with field names that matched the notes.xml schema. I then dumped the data using the XML feature to create an XML file that was very close to the notes.xml schema.
A few seach and replaces and I now have a notes.xml file that contains the industry for almost every stock in the three exchanges. A few stocks didn't have an industry name so they will so up as "n/a".
Now when you run your screens, the notes column will pop up the industry for that particular stock. You can then group them by industry to gauge what people are interested in. This is also helpful when your managing portfolios with a large number of stocks. You can group your stocks to see which industries are doing well and which ones are no longer trending.
Attached is a notes.txt that I renamed for the attachment. Its really a notes.zip file.
1. Download file and unzip
2. Backup your current notes.xml file in the StrategyDesk root folder in case you want to back out these changes.
3. Drop the new notes.xml file in the root folder.
Now when you type in a stock or dump a list of stocks, the industry names will appear next to them when you show the notes column. A few will have "n/a" because the original file from NASDAQ didn't have that info. You can updates the notes manually for those stocks. The updated information will be added to the notes file.
(I updated the file to use the industry names from the AAII database which has more listing. This file should cover 9800+ stocks. This file is 50% larger than the previous, same zip format renamed as .txt)
After using it for a while, I noticed that sometimes StrategyDesk has problems reading the notes.xml file if the notes column gets changed manually. I'll get a parse error sometimes. It could be a buffer over run error. If I don't change the notes.xml file, everything is fine. Just keep a backup copy of the file somewhere to replace the notes.xml if it gets corrupted.
WTSAO about stocks trading 6
I was doing some research last night analyzing the different strategies on AAII and seeing how they compare against the total market index.
From 1998-2010:
Buying everything in the market would return a total of 230% over that period. (Basically buying the VTI ETF).
(largest drawdown -46.3% in 2008, max monthly gain 23.9%,
max monthly loss: -22.1%)
Only the S&P MidCap 400 outperformed it with a 268%
(largest drawdown: -36.9% in 2008, max monthly gain 19%,
max monthly loss: -22.2%)
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 didn't even come close to these returns.
I wanted to find out which strategy would outperform both while taking into account monthly volatility and yearly drawdown. First I ruled out any strategy that returned losses 2 years in a row and then filtered out only the ones that actually outperformed both. (There is no point following a strategy if it can't even beat a buy and hold strategy). This reduced the number of candidates strategies from 53 to 20.
Not every strategy is going to do well each year so I tried combining 2 strategies together to improve the overall result. I also used the Fairholme fund (FAIRX) as a benchmark since I think one of the best funds out there in terms of risk and reward.
I was expecting the result to be O'Neils CANSLIM strategy with another value based strategy but was somewhat surprised. The best combination turned out to be
Value on the Move (PEG w/Est Growth) + Est Rev Up +5% strategy.
The combination returned double digit returns 12 out of 13 years from 1998-2010 YTD with a 2008 drawdown of (-27.8%) outperforming the indices and the Fairholme fund. The monthly max gain was 22.3% and max loss (-22.4%). Total return: 1746%
A more conservative strategy combined the Est Rev Up+5 with the P/E Relative strategy with a better drawdown. 11 out of 13 years with double digit returns and a 2008 drawdown of (-17.1%). Monthly max gain 22.8, max monthly loss (-20%). Total return: 1616%
The Graham Defensive Investor (Non-Utility) + Est Rev Up +5% was somewhere in between in terms of performance but with superior drawdowns. 10 out of 13 years with double digit returns and a 2008 drawdown of (-25.2%). Monthly max gain 28.3%, max monthly loss (-19.5). Total return: 1626%. (This one had a lower monthly and yearly drawdown than even Buffet's strategy which returned 421% over the same period (-25.8% drawdown 2008); actually buying on relative P/E would have beat Buffet's strategy with a -15% drop in 2008 and a 636% return).
I'm not recommending anything. Just something interesting to check out.
From 1998-2010:
Buying everything in the market would return a total of 230% over that period. (Basically buying the VTI ETF).
(largest drawdown -46.3% in 2008, max monthly gain 23.9%,
max monthly loss: -22.1%)
Only the S&P MidCap 400 outperformed it with a 268%
(largest drawdown: -36.9% in 2008, max monthly gain 19%,
max monthly loss: -22.2%)
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 didn't even come close to these returns.
I wanted to find out which strategy would outperform both while taking into account monthly volatility and yearly drawdown. First I ruled out any strategy that returned losses 2 years in a row and then filtered out only the ones that actually outperformed both. (There is no point following a strategy if it can't even beat a buy and hold strategy). This reduced the number of candidates strategies from 53 to 20.
Not every strategy is going to do well each year so I tried combining 2 strategies together to improve the overall result. I also used the Fairholme fund (FAIRX) as a benchmark since I think one of the best funds out there in terms of risk and reward.
I was expecting the result to be O'Neils CANSLIM strategy with another value based strategy but was somewhat surprised. The best combination turned out to be
Value on the Move (PEG w/Est Growth) + Est Rev Up +5% strategy.
The combination returned double digit returns 12 out of 13 years from 1998-2010 YTD with a 2008 drawdown of (-27.8%) outperforming the indices and the Fairholme fund. The monthly max gain was 22.3% and max loss (-22.4%). Total return: 1746%
A more conservative strategy combined the Est Rev Up+5 with the P/E Relative strategy with a better drawdown. 11 out of 13 years with double digit returns and a 2008 drawdown of (-17.1%). Monthly max gain 22.8, max monthly loss (-20%). Total return: 1616%
The Graham Defensive Investor (Non-Utility) + Est Rev Up +5% was somewhere in between in terms of performance but with superior drawdowns. 10 out of 13 years with double digit returns and a 2008 drawdown of (-25.2%). Monthly max gain 28.3%, max monthly loss (-19.5). Total return: 1626%. (This one had a lower monthly and yearly drawdown than even Buffet's strategy which returned 421% over the same period (-25.8% drawdown 2008); actually buying on relative P/E would have beat Buffet's strategy with a -15% drop in 2008 and a 636% return).
I'm not recommending anything. Just something interesting to check out.
WTSAO about stocks trading 5
or those interested in developing a simple strategy, here is one that I used in the past. It would have gotten you out of the May 2010 crash and got you back in at the bottom at the end of August 2010.
I came up with the idea when I figure traders want to get in on a strong reversal signal and like to hold onto their trades until the final end. The MACD is a lagging indicator so its perfect for those that can't let go of their stock.
I use Ameritrade so I've add the entry and exit code.
Entry: Buy when the today's MACD histogram value is greater than yesterday's; yesterday's histogram value is less than the day before and today's histogram value is greater than the the histogram value 2 days ago.
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] < MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2]
Exit: Sell when the MACD line crosses below the MACD signal line.
(MACD[MACD,Close,12,26,9,D] < MACD[Signal,Close,12,26,9,D] AND MACD[MACD,Close,12,26,9,D,1] >= MACD[Signal,Close,12,26,9,D,1])
I use DDM to test against the DOW assuming each trade is at 100 shares, with a $10 commission to buy and $10 to sell. The larger the trade, the better the results as commission doesn't eat away at it.
For 1/1/2009-12/31/2009
Profit/Loss: up 61% for the year
Winners/Losers: 5/3
Percent Winners: 62.5%
Average Trade: $195
Average Winner: $386
Average Loser: $123
Drawdown: $396
For 2010 to present you would still be on the plus side:
Profit/Loss: 3% to present
Winners/Losers: 1/3
Percent Winners: 25%
Drawdown: $370
If you add a stochastic filter, you would be up about 15% for 2010
New Entry:
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] < MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2] AND
Stochastic[StocK,14,3,1,D] < 50
% Winners: 100
Winners/Losers: 2/0 (2 trades for the year!)
There is done with no stop limits in place.
I came up with the idea when I figure traders want to get in on a strong reversal signal and like to hold onto their trades until the final end. The MACD is a lagging indicator so its perfect for those that can't let go of their stock.
I use Ameritrade so I've add the entry and exit code.
Entry: Buy when the today's MACD histogram value is greater than yesterday's; yesterday's histogram value is less than the day before and today's histogram value is greater than the the histogram value 2 days ago.
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] < MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2]
Exit: Sell when the MACD line crosses below the MACD signal line.
(MACD[MACD,Close,12,26,9,D] < MACD[Signal,Close,12,26,9,D] AND MACD[MACD,Close,12,26,9,D,1] >= MACD[Signal,Close,12,26,9,D,1])
I use DDM to test against the DOW assuming each trade is at 100 shares, with a $10 commission to buy and $10 to sell. The larger the trade, the better the results as commission doesn't eat away at it.
For 1/1/2009-12/31/2009
Profit/Loss: up 61% for the year
Winners/Losers: 5/3
Percent Winners: 62.5%
Average Trade: $195
Average Winner: $386
Average Loser: $123
Drawdown: $396
For 2010 to present you would still be on the plus side:
Profit/Loss: 3% to present
Winners/Losers: 1/3
Percent Winners: 25%
Drawdown: $370
If you add a stochastic filter, you would be up about 15% for 2010
New Entry:
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,1] < MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D,2] AND
Stochastic[StocK,14,3,1,D] < 50
% Winners: 100
Winners/Losers: 2/0 (2 trades for the year!)
There is done with no stop limits in place.
WTSAO about stocks trading 4
In my opinion nothing in this world is guaranteed. If the market tanks, companies cut back and eventually yields get hit. What about the folks that owned these companies before 2008. If you owned LINE at $40, you would have lost almost everything in 2008.
There is no question that these companies have performed well since hitting "the bottom". During recessions you would expect value based companies to be the best performing and the ones you mentioned are all somewhat value based; though LINE and KMP's potential earnings growth for 2011 are impressive at 17 and 21% with LINE outperforming the other two with stronger profit margins.
Even near retirement, I think every portfolio should have some growth companies even if its just a small percentage.
With that said, growth companies have done even better since the 2008 rebound. Since "the bottom", the tech sector has performed with Apple (AAPL) having a 376%+ return with iPOD mania (I don't own one and don't plan to; its just another toy). The "cloud computing" companies such as Rackspace (RAX) with a 625% return since 2008. In my opinion that lifted the networking sector such as F5 (FFIV) and the data warehousing (NZ). Online video has been popular with Liberty Media (LCAPA). Netflix (NFLX) has had a good run. Gold companies such as AEM have performed well (200+%) since 2008; though I try to avoid anything related to the commodities market.
I'm not one for chasing returns but if the company has good growth potential and the balance sheet looks good, why not? Find a good base entry point, and have an exit strategy. If you do that the risk is low.
There is no question that these companies have performed well since hitting "the bottom". During recessions you would expect value based companies to be the best performing and the ones you mentioned are all somewhat value based; though LINE and KMP's potential earnings growth for 2011 are impressive at 17 and 21% with LINE outperforming the other two with stronger profit margins.
Even near retirement, I think every portfolio should have some growth companies even if its just a small percentage.
With that said, growth companies have done even better since the 2008 rebound. Since "the bottom", the tech sector has performed with Apple (AAPL) having a 376%+ return with iPOD mania (I don't own one and don't plan to; its just another toy). The "cloud computing" companies such as Rackspace (RAX) with a 625% return since 2008. In my opinion that lifted the networking sector such as F5 (FFIV) and the data warehousing (NZ). Online video has been popular with Liberty Media (LCAPA). Netflix (NFLX) has had a good run. Gold companies such as AEM have performed well (200+%) since 2008; though I try to avoid anything related to the commodities market.
I'm not one for chasing returns but if the company has good growth potential and the balance sheet looks good, why not? Find a good base entry point, and have an exit strategy. If you do that the risk is low.
WTSAO about stocks trading 3
I still like some of them and do have them but others I have sold off (portions of them) to rebalance my portfolio. Sometimes I sell because I see a reversal and other times just to keep no stock larger than 10% of my total portfolio size. Rather than just give you a list of stocks, here are places that I get picks:
http://www.jubakpicks.com
http://www.aaii.com (member - its worth the $30 annual fee)
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/
For aaii, pick a strategy that you like (buy every month and sell and rebuy the next month). Graham's strategy, Piotroski, Free Cash Flow, Foolish Small Cap 8, Magnet Simple, Tiny Titans, PEG, etc. are all great strategies that have returns 700% or more over the last 10 years. I go through all of them and then apply screener to them.
http://www.investors.com
This one is good for growth buyers with their (CAN SLIM) strategy (2000% return over the last 10 years, but when the market goes down, you need to have a good exit approach or you get killed).
Good luck
William
http://www.jubakpicks.com
http://www.aaii.com (member - its worth the $30 annual fee)
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/
For aaii, pick a strategy that you like (buy every month and sell and rebuy the next month). Graham's strategy, Piotroski, Free Cash Flow, Foolish Small Cap 8, Magnet Simple, Tiny Titans, PEG, etc. are all great strategies that have returns 700% or more over the last 10 years. I go through all of them and then apply screener to them.
http://www.investors.com
This one is good for growth buyers with their (CAN SLIM) strategy (2000% return over the last 10 years, but when the market goes down, you need to have a good exit approach or you get killed).
Good luck
William
WTSAO about stocks trading 2
Here are some things I would recommend.
For money and risk management
"Come into My Trading Room" - Elder
(Amazon should have this)
Learning to read charts, trendlines, support/resistance, etc.
"Getting Started in Technical Analysis" - Schwager
http://www.stockcharts.com (free)
For strategies:
http://www.aaii.com ($29/yr)
http://www.investors.com (A bit more expensive but some folks love it)
For finding new stocks:
http://www.aaii.com (each strategy provides monthly picks)
http://www.stockcharts.com (has predefined scans)
http://www.barchart.com
If you interested in finding which sectors are strong and weak:
http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ind...bigcharts-com/
Paper Trading
http://www.updown.com
Good luck.
William
For money and risk management
"Come into My Trading Room" - Elder
(Amazon should have this)
Learning to read charts, trendlines, support/resistance, etc.
"Getting Started in Technical Analysis" - Schwager
http://www.stockcharts.com (free)
For strategies:
http://www.aaii.com ($29/yr)
http://www.investors.com (A bit more expensive but some folks love it)
For finding new stocks:
http://www.aaii.com (each strategy provides monthly picks)
http://www.stockcharts.com (has predefined scans)
http://www.barchart.com
If you interested in finding which sectors are strong and weak:
http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ind...bigcharts-com/
Paper Trading
http://www.updown.com
Good luck.
William
WTSAO about stocks trading 1
Kaz
dakt
rba
ge
gilt
Here is another screen to use:
Look for stocks that close within 20% of its high signalling that there is plenty of demand. For ameritrade, I use
(Bar[High,D]-Bar[Close,D])/(Bar[High,D]-Bar[Low,D]) < 0.20 AND
MovingAverage[MA,Volume,10,0,D] > X
I also add a 10 day moving average filter. Set the moving average X to be 10x your position size so you can get out quickly without moving the stock if it goes the wrong way.
I also fish new positions by getting a small amount (1/4 of my regular size). This way I'm forced to watch where it goes.
dakt
rba
ge
gilt
Here is another screen to use:
Look for stocks that close within 20% of its high signalling that there is plenty of demand. For ameritrade, I use
(Bar[High,D]-Bar[Close,D])/(Bar[High,D]-Bar[Low,D]) < 0.20 AND
MovingAverage[MA,Volume,10,0,D] > X
I also add a 10 day moving average filter. Set the moving average X to be 10x your position size so you can get out quickly without moving the stock if it goes the wrong way.
I also fish new positions by getting a small amount (1/4 of my regular size). This way I'm forced to watch where it goes.
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