NoDoji about S/R and testing

12-19-12 08:24 PM

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Quote from clarodina:

how you guys deal with overshoot or undershoot of support and resistance level? How to know whether price would overshoot or undershoot?

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Homework (to be done on 50 occurrences of the setup in your trading time frame):

1. Choose an S/R level (trend line, parallel channel line, previous horizontal S/R, moving average).

2. On smaller time frame chart (such as 1-min chart for 5-min traders, or an hourly chart for very short term swing traders), compare the patterns of trades where S/R holds (with or without an overshoot) to the patterns of trades where S/R fails.

3. Note if any particular price action pattern occurs more often than not.

4. Use patterns that occur more often than not as a guide to setting up rules for trading off S/R levels.

5. Repeat for each type of S/R level.

As a 5-min trader, I use the classic 1-2-3 reversal pattern on a 1-min chart. Highest probability pattern I've found so far.

http://www.dacharts.com/123.htm





The examples show the LH and HL reversals, but DT/DB's and FBO's work just as well.

I also tend to take the early entry (the "X"), because I'm cheap these days.

NoDoji trading stats

Trading for a living is not about feelings, it's about hard stats. Feelings are fine if you're taking a fixed amount of money you plan to lose to the casino to see if you can get lucky. The reason your emotions are getting in the way is because of how you feel about setups, for better or worse.

Trading for a living means combining setups and money management rules that place the odds in your favor over a large enough sample size to generate profits despite the random distribution of individual wins and losses.

I never "feel" an edge technically (except those "continuation in a very strong trend" setups). I "know" an edge technically. I "know" that based on the hard statistical data I've compiled for a given pattern in a given context that the odds are in my favor. I also know that the outcome of this individual trade will be random, but if I trade the same pattern/context over and over again, the net outcome of the randomly distributed individual outcomes will be positive.

I no longer care how the setup feels or how it feels once I'm in the trade, because feelings used to sabotage my profit potential badly. I'll never forget my friend and I taking a short trade together, both of us "feeling" that there was support at a nearby level as the trade moved in our favor, both of exiting quickly for .10 profit at the exact same moment, only to watch price immediately break and drop over 1.00 in minutes.

Wolf knows my trading well and can confirm that I am now much better at sitting with the discomfort come hell or high water until the market says loud and clear that the setup is no longer valid.

I can't emphasize enough that feelings have no place in trading. You do research, accrue knowledge, develop rules based on that knowledge, then hold your nose and buy or sell when (and only when) your rules tell you to.

intraday trend trading

If you buy every correction in a bull market, you'll only be wrong once--the top. If you sell every rally in a bear market, you'll only be wrong once-- the bottom.

As far as adding to a loser I will NEVER do that, why screw around with a loser when you can kill it and pick a winner? Most people like to pick bottoms they think it's a "Good Deal" you want a good deal go haggle on a car or goto walmart looking for a good deal in the market will get you SCREWED.

Attached is how I trade off the 5min, follow the blue lines, when trend is down sell when it's up buy on pullbacks to the BB's or the blue lines. Pretty easy right? Most people think it needs to be damn hard to make money and they lose the most.

EDIT- One last thing, watch for time of day specially 10.30,12.0,1.0.2.30..four key trading times...



 

 

 

That is so funny man, I did about the same thing for years on the 3 min, I used BB's set to 18/2 and RSI set to 6. All data was a bar chart. When price closes outside of the bb with a RSI divergence I would counter trend trade it. Worked all day every day

 

 

 

I shorted eur/gpb yesterday but no one cares about what I do, it's not that exciting lol. I am up 15% this month Here is a chart



 

http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=42555&d=1211502102

 

 

 

 

I spent well over 1000 hours looking for the "System" that would not lose, guess what it's not out there lol. I can hit 80-85% winners and what really changes the game is money management, if I risk 50 points I want to get 75-100. That put's you well over 90% if traded right. I STILL close winners too fast but taking 100 points on a 50 risk is good MM to me. Just part of the game Also got long USD/CHF @ 1.0435

 

 

 

Check out the 5min with BB 18/2 and 21EMA, use the 30min 1hr for trend and play the pullbacks. If the BB go flat CT the shit outa it with the divergence of your choice 2%+ again today easy shit and that's with the 10am new spike I almost got hammered on.


p.s. Don't wake up at 9:50am and trade w/o checking the news events

 

 

 

If you don't know how to trade I say cash really. Anything in the market is going to go down and remember you can get back in anytime. I have had 3 trades in the past 2 weeks and 0 this week. I have no edge so I stay out.

 

 

say more selling to come, My new goal is 2% a day or 10 pips, been hitting it the past 11 days without any problem. Got tired of trying to come up with longer term money management. Ya the 5min charts sucks but it makes me money.