вівторок, 21 грудня 2010 р.
середа, 17 листопада 2010 р.
Tom's room results for 17/11/2010
So, the first week in Tom room.
Results:
16.11.2010 Buy JAN Crude Oil 83,56 (stop 82,45) . Stop hit. -111 (-1R)
16.11.2010 Buy Silverl 25,08 (stop 24,70) . Target 1 hit: 50% closed at 25,45 (+32). Target 2 hit: 50% closed at 25,64. +44 . +1,16 R
Results:
16.11.2010 Buy JAN Crude Oil 83,56 (stop 82,45) . Stop hit. -111 (-1R)
16.11.2010 Buy Silverl 25,08 (stop 24,70) . Target 1 hit: 50% closed at 25,45 (+32). Target 2 hit: 50% closed at 25,64. +44 . +1,16 R
вівторок, 9 листопада 2010 р.
Master One Forex Trading Strategy at a Time
Forget everything you have learned up to this point in your trading career, because if you truly want to master a new forex trading strategy you really need to wipe the slate clean of all the confusing indicator and software based trading systems you have likely used thus far. One of the biggest problems that plague traders who are trying to adopt a new approach to the forex market is that they seem to bring a lot of preconceived notions and failed trading concepts with them. If you really want to excel at forex trading and adopt a fresh new trading strategy, you need to focus on one strategy or way of thinking and stop allowing previously failed trading methods to influence your current perspective on the market.
• Train your Brain
Learning to master one trading setup at a time will help you properly train your brain to become more disciplined and objective, two characteristics that you absolutely must possess if you wish to excel at forex trading. The process of truly mastering and “owning” one forex trading setup at a time might take months or even years to accomplish, but your chances of making money are increased dramatically by doing so. After you completely master one trading setup you will know almost instantly whether or not your setup is present, there will still be some discretion involved, but owning and mastering a setup means that you have fine-tuned your sense of discretion when it comes to deciding which trades to take and which ones to pass on. Many traders search long and hard for some “holy-grail” trading system that allows them to avoid having to develop their discretionary trading skills, unfortunately for them, professional trading inherently involves a fine-tuned sense of being able to discern between A, B, and C grade trade setups.
The discipline and objectivity that you will require as a result of learning to master one forex trading strategy at a time should spill over into other areas of your trading such as managing your risk and remaining calm and collected. When your thoughts are scattered on multiple trading strategies and (or) you have little confidence in the strategy you are currently using, you are obviously not going to make very wise trading decisions. Learning to master and “own” one forex trading strategy at a time will solve both of these problems because your focus will not be scattered amongst multiple strategies and you will naturally gain confidence in each setup as you master them one by one. Essentially, our goal in mastering one setup at a time is to reduce variables in our trading, many traders do they exact opposite when starting out by actually increasing variables through analyzing greater and greater amounts of technical and fundamental market data. Yet, the reason most traders lose money is not because they aren’t analyzing enough data, it’s because they over-trade, over-leverage, and analyze TOO MUCH data.
• Learn to Think like your Mentor
Obviously, if you are looking for a new trading strategy or mentor, what you were doing before was not working for you. Thus, it is paramount to your success as a trader that you adopt the same trading philosophies that your new mentor or trading strategy teaches, wash your mind of what you have learned thus far and completely immerse yourself in this new approach to the markets. In regards to what we teach here at learn to trade the market, this means learning to master one price action setup at a time, as this is how I initially found success in the forex market and so it is also what I recommend all my students do. As I have stated previously, after you master one price action setup you can move on to master another, until eventually your forex trading arsenal is fully loaded.
• Specialization is the Universal Key to Making Money
What do most people that make a lot of money in this world have in common? What do Tiger Woods and Bill Gates have common? Or how about George Soros and Venus Williams? At first you might say “nothing” besides the fact that they all make a lot of money. But what is the fundamental reason, behind all else, that these people and others like them make so much money while the rest of the world struggles to get themselves out of bed in the morning? One word; specialization.
People that make a lot of money focus in on one thing that they are passionate about, and they do it over and over and over until they achieve the result they are looking for. Simply put, you cannot really make a lot of money at anything in life if you master nothing. All of the people in the above example have literally “mastered” one thing, sure they had ups and downs along the way, but they did not let that bother them, instead they transmuted this negative energy into motivation and pressed on because they believed in what they were doing. Had they got involved and distracted with numerous other side-projects or interests they simply would not have achieved what they did. In forex trading we need to focus on one price action setup at a time and become a “specialist” in it, get to the point where you find yourself being someone that other traders look to for advice on the setup that you “own”. Become an authority on each price action setup before you move on to the next, there is no sense in doing anything half-ass in this world, and trading price action setups is no different.
• How to Master the Setup
Mastering one price action setup at a time is accomplished through literally making it the only setup you think about or look for when interacting with the market. You essentially live, breath, and sleep this one setup until you feel confident you know every angle and condition it can or should be traded in. Keep a trading journal to record under which market conditions the setup excelled in and which conditions it performed weaker in. Find all the information out on the setup you choose and learn everything you can about it. Once you do this you can begin implementing this knowledge on a demo account, only after you master this one setup on a demo account should you attempt to master it on a live trading account. If you find you are becoming consistently profitable with this one setup on a live trading account and you truly feel like you “own” it, then and only then should you think about adding a new setup to your trading toolbox.
• One Setup does not mean One Variable
In closing, a very important distinction to make here is that one price action setup does not only mean entering a trade when you see a well defined pin bar or other price action setup. By learning to master one “setup”, we mean you learn to master trading that particular setup in a particular market context. For example, you might learn to master the pin bar setup in a trending market and only enter or exit at confluent levels within the trend, this is an example of how a “setup” can mean the actual price action setup itself and the market conditions that it is traded in. So, in order to fully master one price action setup you must learn to master this setup in one particular market condition, perhaps you want to master the fakey setup in range-bound markets, or the inside bar in down-trending markets; the totality of the actual price pattern itself combined with the particular market condition you trade it in is what you must master in order to consider yourself a “master” of one forex trading strategy.
If you would like to find out more about my price action strategies as well as my “mastering one setup at a time” approach to the markets, checkout some of the other cool areas of my site as well as my forex trading course.
• Train your Brain
Learning to master one trading setup at a time will help you properly train your brain to become more disciplined and objective, two characteristics that you absolutely must possess if you wish to excel at forex trading. The process of truly mastering and “owning” one forex trading setup at a time might take months or even years to accomplish, but your chances of making money are increased dramatically by doing so. After you completely master one trading setup you will know almost instantly whether or not your setup is present, there will still be some discretion involved, but owning and mastering a setup means that you have fine-tuned your sense of discretion when it comes to deciding which trades to take and which ones to pass on. Many traders search long and hard for some “holy-grail” trading system that allows them to avoid having to develop their discretionary trading skills, unfortunately for them, professional trading inherently involves a fine-tuned sense of being able to discern between A, B, and C grade trade setups.
The discipline and objectivity that you will require as a result of learning to master one forex trading strategy at a time should spill over into other areas of your trading such as managing your risk and remaining calm and collected. When your thoughts are scattered on multiple trading strategies and (or) you have little confidence in the strategy you are currently using, you are obviously not going to make very wise trading decisions. Learning to master and “own” one forex trading strategy at a time will solve both of these problems because your focus will not be scattered amongst multiple strategies and you will naturally gain confidence in each setup as you master them one by one. Essentially, our goal in mastering one setup at a time is to reduce variables in our trading, many traders do they exact opposite when starting out by actually increasing variables through analyzing greater and greater amounts of technical and fundamental market data. Yet, the reason most traders lose money is not because they aren’t analyzing enough data, it’s because they over-trade, over-leverage, and analyze TOO MUCH data.
• Learn to Think like your Mentor
Obviously, if you are looking for a new trading strategy or mentor, what you were doing before was not working for you. Thus, it is paramount to your success as a trader that you adopt the same trading philosophies that your new mentor or trading strategy teaches, wash your mind of what you have learned thus far and completely immerse yourself in this new approach to the markets. In regards to what we teach here at learn to trade the market, this means learning to master one price action setup at a time, as this is how I initially found success in the forex market and so it is also what I recommend all my students do. As I have stated previously, after you master one price action setup you can move on to master another, until eventually your forex trading arsenal is fully loaded.
• Specialization is the Universal Key to Making Money
What do most people that make a lot of money in this world have in common? What do Tiger Woods and Bill Gates have common? Or how about George Soros and Venus Williams? At first you might say “nothing” besides the fact that they all make a lot of money. But what is the fundamental reason, behind all else, that these people and others like them make so much money while the rest of the world struggles to get themselves out of bed in the morning? One word; specialization.
People that make a lot of money focus in on one thing that they are passionate about, and they do it over and over and over until they achieve the result they are looking for. Simply put, you cannot really make a lot of money at anything in life if you master nothing. All of the people in the above example have literally “mastered” one thing, sure they had ups and downs along the way, but they did not let that bother them, instead they transmuted this negative energy into motivation and pressed on because they believed in what they were doing. Had they got involved and distracted with numerous other side-projects or interests they simply would not have achieved what they did. In forex trading we need to focus on one price action setup at a time and become a “specialist” in it, get to the point where you find yourself being someone that other traders look to for advice on the setup that you “own”. Become an authority on each price action setup before you move on to the next, there is no sense in doing anything half-ass in this world, and trading price action setups is no different.
• How to Master the Setup
Mastering one price action setup at a time is accomplished through literally making it the only setup you think about or look for when interacting with the market. You essentially live, breath, and sleep this one setup until you feel confident you know every angle and condition it can or should be traded in. Keep a trading journal to record under which market conditions the setup excelled in and which conditions it performed weaker in. Find all the information out on the setup you choose and learn everything you can about it. Once you do this you can begin implementing this knowledge on a demo account, only after you master this one setup on a demo account should you attempt to master it on a live trading account. If you find you are becoming consistently profitable with this one setup on a live trading account and you truly feel like you “own” it, then and only then should you think about adding a new setup to your trading toolbox.
• One Setup does not mean One Variable
In closing, a very important distinction to make here is that one price action setup does not only mean entering a trade when you see a well defined pin bar or other price action setup. By learning to master one “setup”, we mean you learn to master trading that particular setup in a particular market context. For example, you might learn to master the pin bar setup in a trending market and only enter or exit at confluent levels within the trend, this is an example of how a “setup” can mean the actual price action setup itself and the market conditions that it is traded in. So, in order to fully master one price action setup you must learn to master this setup in one particular market condition, perhaps you want to master the fakey setup in range-bound markets, or the inside bar in down-trending markets; the totality of the actual price pattern itself combined with the particular market condition you trade it in is what you must master in order to consider yourself a “master” of one forex trading strategy.
If you would like to find out more about my price action strategies as well as my “mastering one setup at a time” approach to the markets, checkout some of the other cool areas of my site as well as my forex trading course.
понеділок, 27 вересня 2010 р.
Day trading
The impact I've noticed in futures is not as much as seems to be the case in stocks, but it's enough that the "free money" from scalping is rapidly diminishing. Even if you can out-trade algos, competition from them reduces your execution edge. There is still the riskier money from trading intraday trends and reversals, but that is a lower quality (although more scalable) income stream.
Bottom line - you no longer have a free income boost per annum from picking off stale orders or sitting 1 tick inside the bid & offer. Now your income is *solely* your directional plays. That makes daytrading riskier and less profitable than it used to be.
Having said that, I'm having a decent year with my daytrading, just not as lucrative as before. There's a clear downward trend in the scalping opportunities out there. If you are an experienced trader with sufficient capital, it's probably now more profitable to focus 100% on speculating and investing. And you just improve each year at that, whereas as a daytrader you can't really get any better after say 3-4 years experience. Overnight stuff is easier to monitor, more interesting, and more scalable.
Given that the typical new daytrader does not have the skills or experience to make directional plays profitably, it will be much harder to enter. It normally takes 6-12 months to get decent at directional intraday trading. In the past, you could earn money for those first 1-2 years via scalping, and then directional punts would move up to become 50-70% of your earnings as you gained experience. Now, new traders faced 1-2 years of bleeding instead of steady profits before they pick it up. Most won't have the $$$ or will to survive that long.
Overall I would not recommend anyone go into daytrading now. Learn to invest or learn to position trade instead, those are immune to competition due to recurring flaws in human nature. Unfortunately for the lone wolf trader, it is virtually impossible to invest or speculate by yourself if you are small fry. Even the best can't do much with 10k, whereas in the past 10k was enough to make 1 mill+ in a few years as a good daytrader. So, you need to get into a trading firm nowadays as a noob IMO. That may be irritating, and more difficult to get into, but ultimately it's a faster learning curve to have mentors and colleagues than to go it solo.
Let's face it, scalping was like floor-trading, a profession with a structural edge that paid way more than the skills required to do it were truly worth. It was a perfect candidate for automation. It's not really "true" trading, more like a profitable video game. Overall I don't think I'll be shedding any tears for its slow demise.
Bottom line - you no longer have a free income boost per annum from picking off stale orders or sitting 1 tick inside the bid & offer. Now your income is *solely* your directional plays. That makes daytrading riskier and less profitable than it used to be.
Having said that, I'm having a decent year with my daytrading, just not as lucrative as before. There's a clear downward trend in the scalping opportunities out there. If you are an experienced trader with sufficient capital, it's probably now more profitable to focus 100% on speculating and investing. And you just improve each year at that, whereas as a daytrader you can't really get any better after say 3-4 years experience. Overnight stuff is easier to monitor, more interesting, and more scalable.
Given that the typical new daytrader does not have the skills or experience to make directional plays profitably, it will be much harder to enter. It normally takes 6-12 months to get decent at directional intraday trading. In the past, you could earn money for those first 1-2 years via scalping, and then directional punts would move up to become 50-70% of your earnings as you gained experience. Now, new traders faced 1-2 years of bleeding instead of steady profits before they pick it up. Most won't have the $$$ or will to survive that long.
Overall I would not recommend anyone go into daytrading now. Learn to invest or learn to position trade instead, those are immune to competition due to recurring flaws in human nature. Unfortunately for the lone wolf trader, it is virtually impossible to invest or speculate by yourself if you are small fry. Even the best can't do much with 10k, whereas in the past 10k was enough to make 1 mill+ in a few years as a good daytrader. So, you need to get into a trading firm nowadays as a noob IMO. That may be irritating, and more difficult to get into, but ultimately it's a faster learning curve to have mentors and colleagues than to go it solo.
Let's face it, scalping was like floor-trading, a profession with a structural edge that paid way more than the skills required to do it were truly worth. It was a perfect candidate for automation. It's not really "true" trading, more like a profitable video game. Overall I don't think I'll be shedding any tears for its slow demise.
TRADER WAY
1. We accumulate information--buying books, going to seminars and researching.
2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.
7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.
9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
10. We switch commodities again.
11. We search for more information.
12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.
14. We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.
Most People Will Give up at this Point as they Realize Work is Involved
15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21. We go back into the market and continue to donate.We go back into the market and continue to donate.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rips and our results are still erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them.
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of
2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.
7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.
9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
10. We switch commodities again.
11. We search for more information.
12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.
14. We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.
Most People Will Give up at this Point as they Realize Work is Involved
15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21. We go back into the market and continue to donate.We go back into the market and continue to donate.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rips and our results are still erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them.
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of
понеділок, 14 червня 2010 р.
середа, 9 червня 2010 р.
Hedge fund blog
I've found a good blog about hedge fund issues.
It is worth to read , while starting your own hedge fund
http://richard-wilson.blogspot.com/
It is worth to read , while starting your own hedge fund
http://richard-wilson.blogspot.com/
пʼятниця, 30 квітня 2010 р.
четвер, 29 квітня 2010 р.
interesting quotes
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=3684074#post3684074
seting the profit target.
Rob(ptice action) asked me by pm thats why i am explaining.
first of all remember u have to change your trading plan day by day until ur fully confident .change your bad habits.train ur self to trade like a robot.
what does it mean?
it means everyday keep doing whats works for u and dont do what does not.
review your trades every night .while u u are trading mark them if u can .where u entered and where u exited and why.that will be very first step to become a successfull trader.
if u are biginner set stop to 3:1.what does it mean is that u can have more wrong trades and still make money. and if u still dont make money there is no need to worry.
after that if u think your profit target doesnot reach 3:1.
than reduce it to 2.5:1.and still if u think ,your trade does not reach your profit target.than reduce it to 2:1.
it doesnot mean u cant get out of the market if momentum changed.allways manage the trade actively
when u will find a R:R ratio that suits u .stick with that.
if u are experiance u can go for low R:R ratio.but u need higher hit rate.and u have to be very fast.
every person is diffrent and their risk tolarence as well.some people doesnot have gut to hold a possition too long.some loves to hold onto trades.
now i will tell u how i manage the trade in fx day trading.i manage difrent time frame diffrenly.i will call it its an Art.
what i have found is in fx day trading.most of the pairs will give u 2:1 then it will give u a pullback .thats why my basic profit target is 2:1.but if i see it was first or second impulsive move of the the current intraday trend than i will hold it as long as momentum stays strong.if its 5th or more than that than will close most of the trades for 1:1 .and i manage quick in and out.dont wait for bigger R:R.
specialy choppy day if i trade i manage to get quick in and out.u cant expect bigger move in the choppy market.
choppy days mean supply and demand (sellers and buyer) levels are equally respected by the market .
those days are tough to trade.if u can spot .stop trading as soon as u realise its a flat day.or if u trade,do that very carefully.
seting the profit target.
Rob(ptice action) asked me by pm thats why i am explaining.
first of all remember u have to change your trading plan day by day until ur fully confident .change your bad habits.train ur self to trade like a robot.
what does it mean?
it means everyday keep doing whats works for u and dont do what does not.
review your trades every night .while u u are trading mark them if u can .where u entered and where u exited and why.that will be very first step to become a successfull trader.
if u are biginner set stop to 3:1.what does it mean is that u can have more wrong trades and still make money. and if u still dont make money there is no need to worry.
after that if u think your profit target doesnot reach 3:1.
than reduce it to 2.5:1.and still if u think ,your trade does not reach your profit target.than reduce it to 2:1.
it doesnot mean u cant get out of the market if momentum changed.allways manage the trade actively
when u will find a R:R ratio that suits u .stick with that.
if u are experiance u can go for low R:R ratio.but u need higher hit rate.and u have to be very fast.
every person is diffrent and their risk tolarence as well.some people doesnot have gut to hold a possition too long.some loves to hold onto trades.
now i will tell u how i manage the trade in fx day trading.i manage difrent time frame diffrenly.i will call it its an Art.
what i have found is in fx day trading.most of the pairs will give u 2:1 then it will give u a pullback .thats why my basic profit target is 2:1.but if i see it was first or second impulsive move of the the current intraday trend than i will hold it as long as momentum stays strong.if its 5th or more than that than will close most of the trades for 1:1 .and i manage quick in and out.dont wait for bigger R:R.
specialy choppy day if i trade i manage to get quick in and out.u cant expect bigger move in the choppy market.
choppy days mean supply and demand (sellers and buyer) levels are equally respected by the market .
those days are tough to trade.if u can spot .stop trading as soon as u realise its a flat day.or if u trade,do that very carefully.
пʼятниця, 5 березня 2010 р.
04 March live trades
Today was a good setup day. I made a couple of trades.
1 trade: Sold AUD/USD at H1 resistance. Made everything correct. But didn't pay attention to Big Round Number 0,9000. Price hit my stop loss and reversed. -1R loss.
2 trade: Bought USD/CAD after breaking up hourly PinBar. Price made also double bottom.
Closed 1/2 at first big resistance. Stop remains belov pinbar. Second half is still running.
3 trade: Sold EUR/JPY Hourly PinBaar. Closed 1/2 at big support. Closed 2 half at breakeven 05 March. Bad trade management, cause i scared and didn't followed my plan to hold second part of this trade till stop-loss hit (stop above pin) or further falling.
AUD/USD = -1R
USD/CAD = 1/2 half +1R
USD/JPY = +0,5 R
1 trade: Sold AUD/USD at H1 resistance. Made everything correct. But didn't pay attention to Big Round Number 0,9000. Price hit my stop loss and reversed. -1R loss.
2 trade: Bought USD/CAD after breaking up hourly PinBar. Price made also double bottom.
Closed 1/2 at first big resistance. Stop remains belov pinbar. Second half is still running.
3 trade: Sold EUR/JPY Hourly PinBaar. Closed 1/2 at big support. Closed 2 half at breakeven 05 March. Bad trade management, cause i scared and didn't followed my plan to hold second part of this trade till stop-loss hit (stop above pin) or further falling.
AUD/USD = -1R
USD/CAD = 1/2 half +1R
USD/JPY = +0,5 R
четвер, 4 березня 2010 р.
04 March Analysis
EUR/USD
Price brpke 1,3676, but then drop to 1,3653.
Buy after clear breakout of 3676 and retest.
Sell after breakdown 3440 and retest. Or sell after 3676 failed breakout or lower resistance levels
Resistance 1,36538 1,3675
Support 1,3580; 1,3515 ; 1,3440.
GBP/USD
Trend is down.
Buy after breakout 1,5060 and retest.
Sell after break of trend line + 1,4950 and retest.
Good sell is when price will come to weekly resistance 1,5268 (+61,8% fibo)
Resistance: 5060
Support: 1,4950 ; 1,4826
USD/CHF
Currently in range. Buy after break out 1,09377 and retest.
Sell after break down 1,0695 and retest.
Also we can sell if price will approach resistance 1,0834 ; 1,0871
Buy if price will touch support 1,0614 and bullish priceaction.
USD/JPY
Priced broke weekly support 88,27. At H1 price forming IB. Sell it.
Risky buy, after bullish PA at level 88,80.
Ressitance: 89,50 ; 89,92 ; 90,50
Support: 88,52 ; 88,28
AUD/USD
Yesterday price hit daily resistance 0,9090 and stalled there. Now we have down turn.
Sell if price will go up to 0,9023 and will form some good PA.
Resistance: 0,9023; 9065 ; 9090
Support 0,8956; 0,8935
USD/CAD
If price will retest 1,0395 – sell. If price breaks it and retest – buy.
Resistance: 1,0380, 1,0395 ; 1,0408
Support: 1,0195
EUR/JPY
If price will test monthly resistance 121, 01 and form bearish PA – sell it. If price will go down to levels 121,21 – 121,06 and will form bullish PA – Buy.
Resistance: 121,01 ; 121,56
Support: 120,21; 120,05 119,40
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP formed 2day IB. We wait for break levels 0,9142 or 0,9022.
Support: 0,9022
Resistance : 0,9142
Sell at resistance 91,42
GBP/JPY
Yesterday I missed touch of 134. We will for buy if price will go down to 132,15 and forms bullish PA.
Resistance 134; 134,63;136,60; 137,82
Price brpke 1,3676, but then drop to 1,3653.
Buy after clear breakout of 3676 and retest.
Sell after breakdown 3440 and retest. Or sell after 3676 failed breakout or lower resistance levels
Resistance 1,36538 1,3675
Support 1,3580; 1,3515 ; 1,3440.
GBP/USD
Trend is down.
Buy after breakout 1,5060 and retest.
Sell after break of trend line + 1,4950 and retest.
Good sell is when price will come to weekly resistance 1,5268 (+61,8% fibo)
Resistance: 5060
Support: 1,4950 ; 1,4826
USD/CHF
Currently in range. Buy after break out 1,09377 and retest.
Sell after break down 1,0695 and retest.
Also we can sell if price will approach resistance 1,0834 ; 1,0871
Buy if price will touch support 1,0614 and bullish priceaction.
USD/JPY
Priced broke weekly support 88,27. At H1 price forming IB. Sell it.
Risky buy, after bullish PA at level 88,80.
Ressitance: 89,50 ; 89,92 ; 90,50
Support: 88,52 ; 88,28
AUD/USD
Yesterday price hit daily resistance 0,9090 and stalled there. Now we have down turn.
Sell if price will go up to 0,9023 and will form some good PA.
Resistance: 0,9023; 9065 ; 9090
Support 0,8956; 0,8935
USD/CAD
If price will retest 1,0395 – sell. If price breaks it and retest – buy.
Resistance: 1,0380, 1,0395 ; 1,0408
Support: 1,0195
EUR/JPY
If price will test monthly resistance 121, 01 and form bearish PA – sell it. If price will go down to levels 121,21 – 121,06 and will form bullish PA – Buy.
Resistance: 121,01 ; 121,56
Support: 120,21; 120,05 119,40
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP formed 2day IB. We wait for break levels 0,9142 or 0,9022.
Support: 0,9022
Resistance : 0,9142
Sell at resistance 91,42
GBP/JPY
Yesterday I missed touch of 134. We will for buy if price will go down to 132,15 and forms bullish PA.
Resistance 134; 134,63;136,60; 137,82
середа, 3 березня 2010 р.
03 March Analysis
EUR/USD
Buy after breakout of 3676 and retest.
Sell after breakdown 3440 and retest. Or sell after 3676 failed breakout or lower resistance levels
Resistance 1,36538 1,3675
Support 1,3580; 1,3515 ; 1,3440.
GBP/USD
Trend is down.
Buy after breakout 1,5060 and retest.
Sell after break of trend line + 1,4950 and retest.
Resistance: 5060
Support: 1,4950 ; 1,4826
USD/CHF
Currently in range. Buy after break out 1,09377 and retest.
Sell after break down 1,0695 and retest.
Also we can sell if price will approach resistance 1,0834 ; 1,0871
Buy if price will touch support 1,0695 and bullish priceaction.
USD/JPY
Buy if price will touch weekly support 88,27. If price breaks it, sell after retest.
Risky buy, after bullish PA at level 88,80.
Ressitance: 89,50 ; 89,92 ; 90,50
Support: 88,52 ; 88,28
AUD/USD
Sell if price touches 9090. Strong resistance.
If price breaks it, then buy on retest.
If price breaks down 0,9023 and retest – sell. If we will see bullish PA on 9023, then buy.
Resistance:9065 ; 9090
Support 0,9023; 0,8975
USD/CAD
If price will retest 1,0395 – sell. If price breaks it and retest – buy.
Resistance: 1,0380, 1,0395 ; 1,0408
Support: 1,0195
EUR/JPY
If price breaks down 121,01 and retest – sell. If breaks up and retest 121 – buy.
Resistance: 121,01 ; 121,56
Support: 120,21; 120,05 119,40
EUR/GBP
Support: 0,9022
Resistance : 0,9142
Sell at resistance 91,42
GBP/JPY
BUY At support 132,15
Resistance 134; 134,63;136,60; 137,82
If price will touch 134, look for sell
Buy after breakout of 3676 and retest.
Sell after breakdown 3440 and retest. Or sell after 3676 failed breakout or lower resistance levels
Resistance 1,36538 1,3675
Support 1,3580; 1,3515 ; 1,3440.
GBP/USD
Trend is down.
Buy after breakout 1,5060 and retest.
Sell after break of trend line + 1,4950 and retest.
Resistance: 5060
Support: 1,4950 ; 1,4826
USD/CHF
Currently in range. Buy after break out 1,09377 and retest.
Sell after break down 1,0695 and retest.
Also we can sell if price will approach resistance 1,0834 ; 1,0871
Buy if price will touch support 1,0695 and bullish priceaction.
USD/JPY
Buy if price will touch weekly support 88,27. If price breaks it, sell after retest.
Risky buy, after bullish PA at level 88,80.
Ressitance: 89,50 ; 89,92 ; 90,50
Support: 88,52 ; 88,28
AUD/USD
Sell if price touches 9090. Strong resistance.
If price breaks it, then buy on retest.
If price breaks down 0,9023 and retest – sell. If we will see bullish PA on 9023, then buy.
Resistance:9065 ; 9090
Support 0,9023; 0,8975
USD/CAD
If price will retest 1,0395 – sell. If price breaks it and retest – buy.
Resistance: 1,0380, 1,0395 ; 1,0408
Support: 1,0195
EUR/JPY
If price breaks down 121,01 and retest – sell. If breaks up and retest 121 – buy.
Resistance: 121,01 ; 121,56
Support: 120,21; 120,05 119,40
EUR/GBP
Support: 0,9022
Resistance : 0,9142
Sell at resistance 91,42
GBP/JPY
BUY At support 132,15
Resistance 134; 134,63;136,60; 137,82
If price will touch 134, look for sell
середа, 3 лютого 2010 р.
Risk management and stop losses
Everybody should keep in mind that most traders, including most people posting here, most people having a go at prop trading, most hedge funds etc, ultimately fail, lose more money than they make.
So if you have a bunch of guuys who have been trading net profitably and successfully for decades for me at least it's obvious who I'd listen to, who I'd see as a bench mark, seeing as nothing succeeds like success haha.
Lots more examples out there like the following.
William Eckhardt:
The Win/Loss Ratio
“One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance. …
What really matters is the long-run distributions of outcomes from your trading techniques, systems, and procedures. But, psychologically, what seems of paramount importance is whether the positions that you have right now are going to work. Current positions seem to be crucial beyond any statistical justification. It’s quite tempting to bend your rules to make your current trades work, assuming that the favorability of your long-term statistics will take care of future profitability. Two of the cardinal sins of trading - giving losses too much rope and taking profits prematurely - are both attempts to make current positions more likely to succeed, to the severe detriment of long-term performance.
Market Wizards
-Billionaire hedge fund manager Bruce Kovner:
Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.
Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I'm getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis. I never think about other people who may be using the same stop, because the market shouldn't go there if I am right.
Market Wizards
- Richard Dennis (Turtles daddy, who turned 400 bucks into several hundred million):
When things go bad, traders shouldn't stick their head in the sand and just hope it gets better.
You should always have a worst-case point. The only choice should be to get out quicker.
The worst mistake a trader can make is to miss a major profit opportunity. 95 percent of profits come from only 5 percent of the trades.
- Bill Lipschutz (Biggest earning earning trader for many years at the then investment bank Salomon Brothers before he started his own hedge fund):
I don't have a problem letting my profits run, which many traders do. You have to be able to let your profits run. I don't think you can consistently be a winner trading if you're banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money by being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time."
New Market Wizards
- George Soros:
I don't care when I'm wrong. I cut my losses and move on to the next opportunity. Trading is not about being right. It's about how much you make when you are right.
So if you have a bunch of guuys who have been trading net profitably and successfully for decades for me at least it's obvious who I'd listen to, who I'd see as a bench mark, seeing as nothing succeeds like success haha.
Lots more examples out there like the following.
William Eckhardt:
The Win/Loss Ratio
“One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance. …
What really matters is the long-run distributions of outcomes from your trading techniques, systems, and procedures. But, psychologically, what seems of paramount importance is whether the positions that you have right now are going to work. Current positions seem to be crucial beyond any statistical justification. It’s quite tempting to bend your rules to make your current trades work, assuming that the favorability of your long-term statistics will take care of future profitability. Two of the cardinal sins of trading - giving losses too much rope and taking profits prematurely - are both attempts to make current positions more likely to succeed, to the severe detriment of long-term performance.
Market Wizards
-Billionaire hedge fund manager Bruce Kovner:
Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.
Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I'm getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis. I never think about other people who may be using the same stop, because the market shouldn't go there if I am right.
Market Wizards
- Richard Dennis (Turtles daddy, who turned 400 bucks into several hundred million):
When things go bad, traders shouldn't stick their head in the sand and just hope it gets better.
You should always have a worst-case point. The only choice should be to get out quicker.
The worst mistake a trader can make is to miss a major profit opportunity. 95 percent of profits come from only 5 percent of the trades.
- Bill Lipschutz (Biggest earning earning trader for many years at the then investment bank Salomon Brothers before he started his own hedge fund):
I don't have a problem letting my profits run, which many traders do. You have to be able to let your profits run. I don't think you can consistently be a winner trading if you're banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money by being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time."
New Market Wizards
- George Soros:
I don't care when I'm wrong. I cut my losses and move on to the next opportunity. Trading is not about being right. It's about how much you make when you are right.
вівторок, 2 лютого 2010 р.
Attracting investors
First things first.
Make sure you know what you are getting into. Investing other peoples money is advantageous in the fact that it offers no capital risk of your own and plenty of upside (fixed fees, profit splits) but its not that cut and dried. Some people may think its much easier when its someone elses money on the line but you may find that investing/trading other peoples money may affect you adversely (it did with me when I was prop) when you realise that you are responsible to someone else not yourself which can create all kinds of pyschological/emotional issues.
Second to this, depending on your backers you may find you get levels of interference that are not desirable. e.g. What are you in at the moment? What?! You're short the S&P??! It's been going up for weeks?!"
Thirdly and perhaps most importantly there are all sorts of logistical and regulatory nightmares. In the UK, trading for others is highly illegal under a profit share arrangement unless you work under an umbrella company or you have the necessary regulatory certificates to do it. (In the UK it costs £1,500 to submit an application form to the FSA to trade others money and there is no guarantee that you will be accepted as they take experience etc into account... with the application fee being non-refundable for starters...a lot of people probably think they won't get caught...until they produce a 30% drawdown and bear the brunt of some disgruntled investors wrath...first rule of business is (or should be) never trust anyone!
I have been offered as much as £1m backing in total in the last year or so and refuse to accept it for the above reasons, I won't even look at trading a mini account for a family member but based on my experience and knowledge here are your best bets if you are set on the idea and you are legally able to do it...
1. Get a track record. If you are any good and in a position to return money to investors, you should be able to make money for yourself. Start small and build a track record that you can show to people. Your account may be small but its consistency and percentage returns, plus awareness of maximum drawdowns etc that investors look for. In this game, word of mouth quickly spreads. It depends on your circumstances but for smaller traders and even some that have become huge (e.g. the market wizards) investment often started at home. If family see you making money, they may come forward and ask you to manage some for them...this can lead onto close friends who then spread the word to other friends that they are doing well with you etc and you can get an entry in this way.
2. Get a presence in the community. This and the point above are closely related but adding this will boost your chances ten fold. If you look at the entries for Top 100 Traders (Trader Monthly) a large majority come recommended. That is to say, someone has come forward and said "I know a great trader who has produced massive returns..." and then they are assessed and featured. I was once contacted by the Financial Times because of a Dow position I had posted on a thread on here! So, easiest way is to start a thread on a board like this one or FF is good for investment also and show people what you are doing. You can clearly stipulate you are not going to give your edge away but entry and exit points or even screenshots of account statements on a consistent basis will get people pm'ing you often after as little as a few weeks. If you go one step further and become a frequent poster and a helpful one you will get a lot of opportunities and see a lot of doors open that you will literally not believe. With a board like this you not only have scouts from firms, funds etc but you also have "tired" investors that cannot make money and are quick to latch onto someone that can.
Sorry if these are obvious but they really are the easiest ways. Many people have been burnt in life and there is a lot of notoriety surrounding traders (Madoff ponzi scheme all the way down to the sh*t system you buy that doesn't make money etc) so simply posting a message saying "I make X% a week, anyone interested in backing me?" is almost 100% destined to get you nowhere.
The best way to get money thrown at you is to just be yourself and don't ask anyone for it.
Actually, it's a lot like getting a beautiful girl to fall for you: play it cool, do your thing and of utmost importance: act like you don't need it or want it.
Always remember the legal side though. It really is key. If you don't do things properly and you are caught, you can be fined, imprisoned and banned from trading for life. Is the risk worth it? That's something only the individual can answer.
Make sure you know what you are getting into. Investing other peoples money is advantageous in the fact that it offers no capital risk of your own and plenty of upside (fixed fees, profit splits) but its not that cut and dried. Some people may think its much easier when its someone elses money on the line but you may find that investing/trading other peoples money may affect you adversely (it did with me when I was prop) when you realise that you are responsible to someone else not yourself which can create all kinds of pyschological/emotional issues.
Second to this, depending on your backers you may find you get levels of interference that are not desirable. e.g. What are you in at the moment? What?! You're short the S&P??! It's been going up for weeks?!"
Thirdly and perhaps most importantly there are all sorts of logistical and regulatory nightmares. In the UK, trading for others is highly illegal under a profit share arrangement unless you work under an umbrella company or you have the necessary regulatory certificates to do it. (In the UK it costs £1,500 to submit an application form to the FSA to trade others money and there is no guarantee that you will be accepted as they take experience etc into account... with the application fee being non-refundable for starters...a lot of people probably think they won't get caught...until they produce a 30% drawdown and bear the brunt of some disgruntled investors wrath...first rule of business is (or should be) never trust anyone!
I have been offered as much as £1m backing in total in the last year or so and refuse to accept it for the above reasons, I won't even look at trading a mini account for a family member but based on my experience and knowledge here are your best bets if you are set on the idea and you are legally able to do it...
1. Get a track record. If you are any good and in a position to return money to investors, you should be able to make money for yourself. Start small and build a track record that you can show to people. Your account may be small but its consistency and percentage returns, plus awareness of maximum drawdowns etc that investors look for. In this game, word of mouth quickly spreads. It depends on your circumstances but for smaller traders and even some that have become huge (e.g. the market wizards) investment often started at home. If family see you making money, they may come forward and ask you to manage some for them...this can lead onto close friends who then spread the word to other friends that they are doing well with you etc and you can get an entry in this way.
2. Get a presence in the community. This and the point above are closely related but adding this will boost your chances ten fold. If you look at the entries for Top 100 Traders (Trader Monthly) a large majority come recommended. That is to say, someone has come forward and said "I know a great trader who has produced massive returns..." and then they are assessed and featured. I was once contacted by the Financial Times because of a Dow position I had posted on a thread on here! So, easiest way is to start a thread on a board like this one or FF is good for investment also and show people what you are doing. You can clearly stipulate you are not going to give your edge away but entry and exit points or even screenshots of account statements on a consistent basis will get people pm'ing you often after as little as a few weeks. If you go one step further and become a frequent poster and a helpful one you will get a lot of opportunities and see a lot of doors open that you will literally not believe. With a board like this you not only have scouts from firms, funds etc but you also have "tired" investors that cannot make money and are quick to latch onto someone that can.
Sorry if these are obvious but they really are the easiest ways. Many people have been burnt in life and there is a lot of notoriety surrounding traders (Madoff ponzi scheme all the way down to the sh*t system you buy that doesn't make money etc) so simply posting a message saying "I make X% a week, anyone interested in backing me?" is almost 100% destined to get you nowhere.
The best way to get money thrown at you is to just be yourself and don't ask anyone for it.
Actually, it's a lot like getting a beautiful girl to fall for you: play it cool, do your thing and of utmost importance: act like you don't need it or want it.
Always remember the legal side though. It really is key. If you don't do things properly and you are caught, you can be fined, imprisoned and banned from trading for life. Is the risk worth it? That's something only the individual can answer.
Prop trading firms! best condition
http://jctradinggroup.ru/Home/Service
Открытие и ведение счета: бесплатно.
Возможность торговать дробными лотами: да, +0.0018 ECN fee
Плечо: 1:20 внутри дня, овернайт - индивидуально.
Минимальный депозит: $1000
Остаток для поддержания счета: $500
Котировки: NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ Level 1 = $3 (три доллара)
Платформа Laser - бесплатно.
Прямой счет в США, никаких офшоров.
Русскоязычная поддержка.
Payout (выплата прибыли) - 100%!
Комиссионные:
0-19 999 акций в месяц = $0,0065 за акцию
20 000-49 999 = $0,0060 за акцию
50 000-99 999 = $0,0055 за акцию
100К-500К = $0,005 за акцию
500К+ - индивидуально.
ECN, NASD, SEC fee трейдер оплачивает отдельно.
Услуги для клиентов
Открытие и ведение счета: бесплатно.
Возможность торговать дробными лотами: да, +0.0018 ECN fee
Плечо: 1:20 внутри дня, овернайт - индивидуально.
Минимальный депозит: $1000
Остаток для поддержания счета: $500
Котировки: NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ Level 1 = $3 (три доллара)
Платформа Laser - бесплатно.
Прямой счет в США, никаких офшоров.
Русскоязычная поддержка.
Payout (выплата прибыли) - 100%!
Комиссионные:
0-19 999 акций в месяц = $0,0065 за акцию
20 000-49 999 = $0,0060 за акцию
50 000-99 999 = $0,0055 за акцию
100К-500К = $0,005 за акцию
500К+ - индивидуально.
ECN, NASD, SEC fee трейдер оплачивает отдельно.
About going to full size trading
P.S. Don't worry about who is confident and who is not. If you see a good level or an opportunity on the chart then post it or at least tell us what and where it is. You only get better in this game by trial and error.
Here is an interesting fact for you. One of the biggest traders here at my firm (£250k per week - yes I did type that right) spent the most time on sim learning while all his peers went live before him. But once he came off sim and went live he left them in the dust in a HUGE way. Just take your time. I'm working with people who have gone from zero in their account (of course they had margin to make a trade) to tens of millions in five years.
This is not a get rich quick game. It's a game where it might take you a good few years to master it and all the while you are trading small and wondering whether you are ever going to get anywhere. But once you have it down and you are consistently profitable - even if its just 10 pence a day you are making, day in and day out - all that stands in the way of your fortune is size. And upping your size is the easiest thing to do in trading.
Just learn the ropes, practice, practice, practice and refine what you do until you are as sharp as a knife. Money comes AFTER consistency. Save the big bets for once you know what you are doing. The ammunition will be there for when you are ready.
Here is an interesting fact for you. One of the biggest traders here at my firm (£250k per week - yes I did type that right) spent the most time on sim learning while all his peers went live before him. But once he came off sim and went live he left them in the dust in a HUGE way. Just take your time. I'm working with people who have gone from zero in their account (of course they had margin to make a trade) to tens of millions in five years.
This is not a get rich quick game. It's a game where it might take you a good few years to master it and all the while you are trading small and wondering whether you are ever going to get anywhere. But once you have it down and you are consistently profitable - even if its just 10 pence a day you are making, day in and day out - all that stands in the way of your fortune is size. And upping your size is the easiest thing to do in trading.
Just learn the ropes, practice, practice, practice and refine what you do until you are as sharp as a knife. Money comes AFTER consistency. Save the big bets for once you know what you are doing. The ammunition will be there for when you are ready.
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