| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8176 | 06-29-13 08:20 PM
You have a clearly defined trading framework and the ability to trade it with a trader’s mindset (the ability to trade all valid signals because you realize there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge). After interfacing with dozens of people over the years, this combination is possessed by less than 5% of them. You’re already a member of a rare class of trader, whether you're trading manually or are able to let an automated system go without interfering with it. Your plan is simple, but a bit too simple. The ingredients you seem to be missing are: 1. Contextual filters 2. Time of Day filter 3. What kind of day trader you want to be: intraday swinger, intraday scalper, or part scalp/part swing scaler Contextual filters are what help you avoid chop and catch the stronger directional price swings. The way I developed contextual filters was to first “eyeball” the price action leading into significant directional price swings versus small range-bound directional price swings to see if I could identify any patterns that occurred more often than not. A pattern in this sense could be a price action pattern (such as an M or W formation, commonly called a 1-2-3), or a relationship of current price to the overall price environment (proximity to a previous day’s key level, or to a trend/channel line in a higher time frame, or to the range of a price bar in a higher time frame, etc). Then, I’d perform a thorough statistical analysis of favorable and adverse price excursions surrounding these patterns to determine whether or not my “eyeball analysis” had any merit. Once you’ve done this, you’ll have more ammunition for developing your profit-taking plan. You may find that by implementing certain filters, your current simple plan becomes significantly profitable without any other changes. In fact, even without doing contextual filter research, your current plan may be fine by implementing something as simple as scalping part of your position and letting the remainder run or stop out. This way, the scalped profit pays for part of the loss during choppy conditions, but you’re able to catch those nice runners when they happen. My recommendation is to evaluate your results over the past couple months applying these scenarios: 1. Scalping N ticks on every trade (no runners) 2. Scalping N ticks on half, letting the other half trade as you have been 3. Identifying contextual filters and applying them to your current plan 4. Identifying contextual filters and applying a scalp/run trade management approach. Consider adding a 20EMA to your chart to determine if it provides a useful filter (I found it very helpful on the 1min chart). I also recommend analyzing whether there's any significant relationship between time of day and net results. For example, maybe the first 2-3 hours produce solid profits and the remainder of the session produces flat or negative results over time. | |
Показ дописів із міткою Trade ideas. Показати всі дописи
Показ дописів із міткою Trade ideas. Показати всі дописи
четвер, 4 липня 2013 р.
Trading system build
NoDoji trading for a living
NoDoji
06-29-13 08:33 PM
Trading for a living is very routine when you do it right.
I found that profitable trading for me involves going with the market, not "taking it on". Think of yourself as a remora latching on to a big powerful-looking shark that swims by in the direction you want to go, so you quickly latch onto it. If you find that the shark suddenly changes course and is taking you in the opposite direction you wanted to go, you let go and wait for the next big powerful-looking shark to swim your way.
A well-researched trading plan with advance directives for trade entry and exit, combined with proper leverage ensures you won't lose it all.
There may be times when the shark you're attached to suddenly breaks out into high gear and you end up cruising past where you want to go toward an island paradise beyond your wildest dreams.
All right, I admit it: When that happens, it's pretty thrilling for a moment or two.
06-29-13 08:33 PM
Trading for a living is very routine when you do it right.
I found that profitable trading for me involves going with the market, not "taking it on". Think of yourself as a remora latching on to a big powerful-looking shark that swims by in the direction you want to go, so you quickly latch onto it. If you find that the shark suddenly changes course and is taking you in the opposite direction you wanted to go, you let go and wait for the next big powerful-looking shark to swim your way.
A well-researched trading plan with advance directives for trade entry and exit, combined with proper leverage ensures you won't lose it all.
There may be times when the shark you're attached to suddenly breaks out into high gear and you end up cruising past where you want to go toward an island paradise beyond your wildest dreams.
All right, I admit it: When that happens, it's pretty thrilling for a moment or two.
понеділок, 24 червня 2013 р.
NoDoji summer june 2013
06-11-13 12:16 AM
I use that term frequently; possibly I’m the trader to whom you refer. With regard to oil futures:
A defined uptrend in my given framework (a 5-min time chart) consists of a pattern where I can identify one swing low that’s higher than a previous swing low, followed by a move up that breaks the swing high between the two swing lows by at least as many ticks as the difference between the swing lows.
A well-defined uptrend consists of a move up that’s so strong the pullbacks fail to print a bar close below previous resistance levels. This usually occurs when price breaks through a high of the day by 10 ticks or more.
Reverse for downtrends.
Price can print a strong trending move without a definable trend being in play. For example, today oil prices were channeling down in pre-market on a 5-min time chart. At the start of the pit session price broke through two previous swing highs without a single pullback on the 5-min chart, then just as quickly sold all the way back to the swing low just before the pit opened. In the 5-min time frame, no trend asserted itself during those two strong moves.
As with all price action patterns, often times close is close enough, so if a value is off by a few ticks or price throws a little head fake at you then turns right back around, consider the trend intact until proven otherwise.
06-14-13 05:49 PM
I trade technical price action, here's the scoop:
1. 60-min chart, connect the Tuesday low to the Tuesday overnight low to get a lower trend line. Thursday overnight action found support there, so...
2. Place a parallel channel line across the swing high in between, the high from Wednesday.
3. The dip to the 95.00 zone in pre-market yesterday found ready buyers, so the LTL is now confirmed for a 1-2-3 long setup.
4. Yesterday's high came within a few ticks of that parallel channel line.
5. The overnight session formed a bull flag with Wednesday's resistance holding as support (well-defined trend on the 60-min chart).
6. Calculate a measured move* off the bull flag (flags generate a measured move reaction more often than not), for a new high target of 98.26.
* 96.92 - 95.08 = 1.84 and 1.84 added to 96.42 flag low is 98.26
Hope that helps!
06-14-13 06:18 PM
If I watched other markets, or paid attention to the actual news reports, I'd never put on a trade because the price action in CL so frequently marches to its own beat.
As a beginning CL trader I once watched a strong trend for over two hours run two or three points without trading. I was waiting for a reversal signal because the inventory report was very bearish.
06-16-13 05:38 AM
My experience backs this up, no doubt.
A couple ideas that helped me:
When price is consolidating or is choppy, it can reach a point where it's sooo tempting to say, "Screw this", take a break, find that you missed a fantastic move, then put on a trade without a valid signal in an attempt to somehow capture what you missed. So as soon as you have the thought of taking a break because it's been ugly for so long, tell yourself to focus 100% for just 20 more minutes and then set a timer. Most of the time you'll be present for a very tradeable move.
Take a brief active break to stretch or jog right after closing out a trade.
What do you mean by "really, really believe in"? That seems problematic to me. You should really, really believe in any setup/context situation that your statistical analyses have proven is net profitable after commission and slippage. Anything else is irrelevant and should be discarded. That's just my opinion.
I frequently really, really believe price is going to do something despite there being no setup/signal whatsoever that meets my trading plan criteria. When that happens it's generally an awesome fade.
These is the "easy money" price action environment and it's one I really, really believe in. It's my primary setup.
As a 5-min trader, if you carefully study a 1-min chart, you'll see how to get on board. Price doesn't run in a straight unbroken line; it pauses, drawing in counter-trend traders, and you'll be able to identify specific patterns in the small time frame for entering a strong trend (or a strong trending move).
Study the 1-min price action immediately following three kinds of breakouts: 1) a breakout with conviction from narrow range consolidation (flag or triangle formation), 2) a break through a previous swing high/low in a well-defined trend, and 3) a weak/failed breakout where price then makes a 2nd attempt after a shallow reaction (Al Brooks would call this a "failed failure" and although most of the ET community makes fun of this concept, it's well worth studying).
+++
06-16-13 09:32 PM
We can never be certain in real time whether a particular price bar will print what eventually becomes a swing high or low. But we can identify the price action patterns that indicate a greater likelihood of a level holding as S/R or breaking out further.
On this chart, you noted a low, followed by a high. The low is not identifiable as a swing low until two or three subsequent bars close; the high is not identifiable as a high until two or three subsequent bars close. But you can assume the risk based on positive expectancy price action patterns and reap the reward more often than not.
Once that high printed and then pulled back, I’d expect the previous range high that broke out to hold as support. If buyers stepped in there and were able to push price beyond a previous 5-min bar high (excluding inside bars), then it’s likely the previous swing high will be at least tested if not exceeded.
.
There are two ways to play the pullback to the range high as new support: Anticipate that it will become support and place a limit order at the range high with a stop below the range low, or place a buy stop above a previous 5-min bar high IF the range high price is touched and appears to hold as support (again, I exclude inside bars) with a stop below the bar that breaks upside. If using a limit order, you’re filled during what looks like the 9:30 bar and take a small loss. If using a stop order, no trade is triggered.
So the limit-filled long looked promising for a moment, but the break of the inside bar produced no follow through and the range breaks downside with some conviction.
Technically, I’d now expect the range low to hold as resistance. Again, two ways to play this, either placing a limit to sell the previous range low that broke down, or sell stop just below previous 5-min bar low IF the range low price is touched. The bar where your red dot marks LH touches the range low, and either your limit is filled or your stop is triggered on the next bar. How you manage that one is up to you. I personally would bail for a scratch after the weak break of the first LL you marked, although holding with the initial stop loss in place keeps you in a fine short trade.
So that’s how, without knowing in real time whether or not a price will become a LH or HL, you can take a leap of faith that technical levels will hold and subsequent price behavior will trigger a profitable move more often than not, which is what positive expectancy is all about.
06-18-13 09:44 PM
For me the biggest advantage of day trading is no overnight surprises to wake up to (or have to hedge against). Also, I find that the most profitable moves occur during the first 3 hours of the RTH sessions, leaving me free for the rest of the day if desired.
Day trading is also the most difficult sort of trading because decisions have to be made far more quickly than with swing trading, you have to be able to clear the slate immediately upon the close of a trade and be prepared to trade again without the baggage of previous trades or current P/L, and you have to be good at staying very focused during price action that can feel like Chinese water torture at times.
Is it worth it? If you have a good trading plan and the ability to trade it, it's absolutely worth it, IMHO.
06-19-13 07:03 PM
Replace "system" with "thoroughly researched and tested business plan".
Replace "generally" with "precisely".
Read Trading in the Zone and trade your plan in a demo account until you can trade it with a trader's mindset.
Not sure what "try" means here. Do you have a disability that prevents you from seeing your setups and putting on and taking off trades in a timely manner?
With regard to playing reversals, what are your rules for trading a potential reversal?
06-19-13 07:42 PM
You're still experimenting (in the R&D phase), so avoid live trading until you have a plan, applied the rules to 500 appearances of your chosen setups and logged the results, then practiced in demo mode until you're consistently profitable and stick with your plan.
I manually backtested. I had a core setup and a method of entry and with my spreadsheet open I logged the stats surrounding every entry. The only filter during that phase was no trades withing 10 minutes of a major news release. Every appearance of the core setup had to be logged and evaluated.
Do you know the win rate % and risk:reward ratio of your pin bar strategy applied to, say, 500 appearances of the setup?
06-22-13 11:43 PM
As Took2Summit stated, "...you can draw the trend line however you want, but you have to be consistent."
You can use any framework for trading as long as it --- and your trading rules surrounding it --- are consistent.
All the ideas you list above for defining a trend do indeed define a trend. None of them, however, can predict whether the current trend --- definable at that moment in time --- will continue.
When you say you have been unable to find a trend definition that consistently works for you, what is your definition of "consistently works"?
All the ideas you list above for defining a trend work for me with excellent consistency, meaning I have rules for trading off these trend definitions that have produced net profit over series' of trades for years now.
Consistency is not certainty. All your threads seem to indicate a quest for certainty. Consistently profitable trading is based on positive expectancy, not certainty.
Your trading plan based on research and testing over a large sample size (such as applying a set of trade entry and trade management rules to 500 appearances of a particular setup and finding enough positive expectancy to produce a net profit after slippage and commissions) will provide the consistency you seek without any need for certainty in predicting the outcome of any individual trade.
Think of a well-researched and tested trading plan as a car that will take you through the streets of the Market City each day as you look for potentially profitable opportunities. If you took the car to a good mechanic and got the seal of approval (research, development & testing phase) before buying it, the chances of a breakdown are reduced. If you drive mindfully and safely, and wear a seat belt (stay focused and patient, follow your setup/entry rules, and honor your risk management plan), your chance of getting killed in an accident is quite low, and your chance of being available to take advantage of every opportunity is high.
I know several traders who have absolutely everything they need to extract ample profit from the market every week. They have well-researched and tested trade ideas with specific rules for entry and exit, yet they're unable to realize their dream because of common bad habits related to fear of uncertainty and/or a never-ending quest for certainty (usually in the forms of further testing, changing rules, adding/removing indicators, testing other markets, and so on).
There is a level of certainty in trading and if I were to express it in terms of tossing a coin for a living, it would look much like one of these scenarios:
1. You toss a fair coin. For every head you receive $130; for every tail you pay $100.
2. You toss a coin that is balanced to come up heads 60% of the time. For every head you receive $130; for every tail you pay $130.
3. You toss a coin that's balanced to come up heads 30% of the time. For every head you receive $500; for every tail you pay $180.
4. You toss a coin that is balanced to come up heads 90% of the time. For every head you receive $50; for every tail you pay $250.
If you could choose any of these coins and toss it for a living based on the risk:reward plan, would you do so?
06-23-13 10:04 PM
My mentor taught me classic TA patterns for free. These patterns are available for free (http://www.daytradingcoach.com/dayt...ysis-course.htm), and in inexpensive books.
I have an individual method of trading off these classic TA patterns. I've posted my strategies via annotated charts here on ET. I've taught my strategies to several others. None of the people I've taught them to have been able to make a living off them. It has nothing to do with their trading plans (all good plans); it has to do with their inability to trade their plans because of a desire for more certainty.
These strategies have been working for the 3 years I've been trading them and they appear to have worked for my mentor for many more years than that. Since they've been around for at least a few decades, I can see they've been working at least that long.
The only adaptation I've had to make to my core TA-based trading plan is when the volatility died down last year in the instrument I trade, I reduced my stops and targets accordingly.
Every one of these patterns are ambushes at times and always have been.
That's what risk management rules are for.
06-23-13 10:12 PM
My personal hypothesis is that all the programmed trading has made them more predictive than ever. I'm often astounded at how many times in a row a particular setup will hit my profit target before hitting my stop.
Keep in mind that the big money that moves price can't just jump in and out all at once; they have strategies for building positions and exiting positions. These strategies become apparent when you study price action and develop your own plan around it.
I don't need to trade 50, 100, 500, or 1000 oil contracts at a time, so I don't have to worry about becoming the "mark" for market makers or about outsmarting another large entity that has to trade that kind of size to scale in and out of longer term positions/hedges.
I can trade my piker size, latching onto the big bad sharks like a little remora:
"The remora benefits by using the host as transport and protection, and also feeds on materials dropped by the host."
06-23-13 10:29 PM
Surf, I'm curious about something. If you believe there's no way to predict the odds of a directional price move based on the technical analysis of what price has been doing, then why do you think certain patterns repeat so much more often than they fail?
I'm looking at a daily chart of the ES going back to June 2012 and I see price pull back down to the rising 50-day moving average on 6 consecutive occasions and result in a directional move of 50 handles or more without closing below that 50EMA, meaning very low risk for significant reward.
How is it a pattern can repeat that often without a fake-out or "ambush" or outright failure?
I use that term frequently; possibly I’m the trader to whom you refer. With regard to oil futures:
A defined uptrend in my given framework (a 5-min time chart) consists of a pattern where I can identify one swing low that’s higher than a previous swing low, followed by a move up that breaks the swing high between the two swing lows by at least as many ticks as the difference between the swing lows.
A well-defined uptrend consists of a move up that’s so strong the pullbacks fail to print a bar close below previous resistance levels. This usually occurs when price breaks through a high of the day by 10 ticks or more.
Reverse for downtrends.
Price can print a strong trending move without a definable trend being in play. For example, today oil prices were channeling down in pre-market on a 5-min time chart. At the start of the pit session price broke through two previous swing highs without a single pullback on the 5-min chart, then just as quickly sold all the way back to the swing low just before the pit opened. In the 5-min time frame, no trend asserted itself during those two strong moves.
As with all price action patterns, often times close is close enough, so if a value is off by a few ticks or price throws a little head fake at you then turns right back around, consider the trend intact until proven otherwise.
06-14-13 05:49 PM
Quote from RedSun:
i start buying SCO. No margin....
I still do not know why CL is >$98 now...
I trade technical price action, here's the scoop:
1. 60-min chart, connect the Tuesday low to the Tuesday overnight low to get a lower trend line. Thursday overnight action found support there, so...
2. Place a parallel channel line across the swing high in between, the high from Wednesday.
3. The dip to the 95.00 zone in pre-market yesterday found ready buyers, so the LTL is now confirmed for a 1-2-3 long setup.
4. Yesterday's high came within a few ticks of that parallel channel line.
5. The overnight session formed a bull flag with Wednesday's resistance holding as support (well-defined trend on the 60-min chart).
6. Calculate a measured move* off the bull flag (flags generate a measured move reaction more often than not), for a new high target of 98.26.
* 96.92 - 95.08 = 1.84 and 1.84 added to 96.42 flag low is 98.26
Hope that helps!
06-14-13 06:18 PM
Quote from RedSun:
NoDoji, thx.
Walter Zimmerman says something similar, good to explain the technical side of it.
But the correlations are broken down. CL shows the divergence from other markets....
If I watched other markets, or paid attention to the actual news reports, I'd never put on a trade because the price action in CL so frequently marches to its own beat.
As a beginning CL trader I once watched a strong trend for over two hours run two or three points without trading. I was waiting for a reversal signal because the inventory report was very bearish.
06-16-13 05:38 AM
Quote from Georgii:
To my way of thinking a statistically valid setup should always be traded even if that means you can end up down at the end of the day. The idea here is that long run you should end up more up if you take those setups.
My experience backs this up, no doubt.
Quote from Georgii:
It appears the main challenge here is to stay focused, and since I'm not a computer I'm going to be susceptible to making errors in judgement if my focus is off.
A couple ideas that helped me:
When price is consolidating or is choppy, it can reach a point where it's sooo tempting to say, "Screw this", take a break, find that you missed a fantastic move, then put on a trade without a valid signal in an attempt to somehow capture what you missed. So as soon as you have the thought of taking a break because it's been ugly for so long, tell yourself to focus 100% for just 20 more minutes and then set a timer. Most of the time you'll be present for a very tradeable move.
Take a brief active break to stretch or jog right after closing out a trade.
Quote from Georgii:
An approach I've begun experimenting with is that I take the first setup or two with size, and regardless of whether it goes well or not, I ratchet down my size, unless I see something that I really, really believe in.
What do you mean by "really, really believe in"? That seems problematic to me. You should really, really believe in any setup/context situation that your statistical analyses have proven is net profitable after commission and slippage. Anything else is irrelevant and should be discarded. That's just my opinion.
I frequently really, really believe price is going to do something despite there being no setup/signal whatsoever that meets my trading plan criteria. When that happens it's generally an awesome fade.
Quote from Georgii:
Breakout is a bit tough on me mentally. The problem though is that many trends I see in ES don't stop to give you room to get on board!
These is the "easy money" price action environment and it's one I really, really believe in. It's my primary setup.
As a 5-min trader, if you carefully study a 1-min chart, you'll see how to get on board. Price doesn't run in a straight unbroken line; it pauses, drawing in counter-trend traders, and you'll be able to identify specific patterns in the small time frame for entering a strong trend (or a strong trending move).
Study the 1-min price action immediately following three kinds of breakouts: 1) a breakout with conviction from narrow range consolidation (flag or triangle formation), 2) a break through a previous swing high/low in a well-defined trend, and 3) a weak/failed breakout where price then makes a 2nd attempt after a shallow reaction (Al Brooks would call this a "failed failure" and although most of the ET community makes fun of this concept, it's well worth studying).
Quote from austinp:
Now on the other hand if your mental approach is to capture max % of the day's range every day, you are going to eventually try and micro-manage each and every single trade to its utmost possible performance. And you will anguish over this one taken off too soon and that one left too long with too wide a stop.
In other words, you will find yourself always wrong on just about every trade. Meanwhile, target shooting for a long-term mean has you cashed out, profitable, all done and out of the office, living your life
+++
06-16-13 09:32 PM
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
The best places to go long and short are obviously at each high and low. Since you said I could do this in hindsight, I have labeled each buy and short entry with a green and red circle.
As I said earlier, I cannot identify them in real time.
We can never be certain in real time whether a particular price bar will print what eventually becomes a swing high or low. But we can identify the price action patterns that indicate a greater likelihood of a level holding as S/R or breaking out further.
On this chart, you noted a low, followed by a high. The low is not identifiable as a swing low until two or three subsequent bars close; the high is not identifiable as a high until two or three subsequent bars close. But you can assume the risk based on positive expectancy price action patterns and reap the reward more often than not.
Once that high printed and then pulled back, I’d expect the previous range high that broke out to hold as support. If buyers stepped in there and were able to push price beyond a previous 5-min bar high (excluding inside bars), then it’s likely the previous swing high will be at least tested if not exceeded.
.
There are two ways to play the pullback to the range high as new support: Anticipate that it will become support and place a limit order at the range high with a stop below the range low, or place a buy stop above a previous 5-min bar high IF the range high price is touched and appears to hold as support (again, I exclude inside bars) with a stop below the bar that breaks upside. If using a limit order, you’re filled during what looks like the 9:30 bar and take a small loss. If using a stop order, no trade is triggered.
So the limit-filled long looked promising for a moment, but the break of the inside bar produced no follow through and the range breaks downside with some conviction.
Technically, I’d now expect the range low to hold as resistance. Again, two ways to play this, either placing a limit to sell the previous range low that broke down, or sell stop just below previous 5-min bar low IF the range low price is touched. The bar where your red dot marks LH touches the range low, and either your limit is filled or your stop is triggered on the next bar. How you manage that one is up to you. I personally would bail for a scratch after the weak break of the first LL you marked, although holding with the initial stop loss in place keeps you in a fine short trade.
So that’s how, without knowing in real time whether or not a price will become a LH or HL, you can take a leap of faith that technical levels will hold and subsequent price behavior will trigger a profitable move more often than not, which is what positive expectancy is all about.
06-18-13 09:44 PM
For me the biggest advantage of day trading is no overnight surprises to wake up to (or have to hedge against). Also, I find that the most profitable moves occur during the first 3 hours of the RTH sessions, leaving me free for the rest of the day if desired.
Day trading is also the most difficult sort of trading because decisions have to be made far more quickly than with swing trading, you have to be able to clear the slate immediately upon the close of a trade and be prepared to trade again without the baggage of previous trades or current P/L, and you have to be good at staying very focused during price action that can feel like Chinese water torture at times.
Is it worth it? If you have a good trading plan and the ability to trade it, it's absolutely worth it, IMHO.
06-19-13 07:03 PM
Quote from jeredlbb:
"system"
generally
try
play reversals
Replace "system" with "thoroughly researched and tested business plan".
Replace "generally" with "precisely".
Read Trading in the Zone and trade your plan in a demo account until you can trade it with a trader's mindset.
Not sure what "try" means here. Do you have a disability that prevents you from seeing your setups and putting on and taking off trades in a timely manner?
With regard to playing reversals, what are your rules for trading a potential reversal?
06-19-13 07:42 PM
Quote from jeredlbb:
I trade pin bars as a reversal. I have attempted to filter out the pin bars that fail from the pin bars that lead to reversals. My filter is based on ATR and surrounding bars.
I guess in a way I am trading swings intraday. My time frames range from 15min to 4hour. I have been experimenting with tick bar charts as well.
I am starting to learn C# to try to begin to back test thoroughly. As of now I manually back test three or four months. I see that even that is subjective in some ways and can lead to errors. Your recommendations? I was using Tradestation, but recently changed to MultiCharts .NET
I am currently reading Trading in the Zone per Visaria's suggestion.
You're still experimenting (in the R&D phase), so avoid live trading until you have a plan, applied the rules to 500 appearances of your chosen setups and logged the results, then practiced in demo mode until you're consistently profitable and stick with your plan.
I manually backtested. I had a core setup and a method of entry and with my spreadsheet open I logged the stats surrounding every entry. The only filter during that phase was no trades withing 10 minutes of a major news release. Every appearance of the core setup had to be logged and evaluated.
Do you know the win rate % and risk:reward ratio of your pin bar strategy applied to, say, 500 appearances of the setup?
06-22-13 11:43 PM
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
I have heard uptrends defined in the following ways:
1) a series of HH/HLs (some people say H/HL, some people say HH/HL, some people say HL/HH/HL, some people say HH/HL/HH/HL)
2) Anchor R becoming S
3) Trendlines
4) the slope of a MA
I have been unable to fine one that consistently works for me.
What are your thoughts?
As Took2Summit stated, "...you can draw the trend line however you want, but you have to be consistent."
You can use any framework for trading as long as it --- and your trading rules surrounding it --- are consistent.
All the ideas you list above for defining a trend do indeed define a trend. None of them, however, can predict whether the current trend --- definable at that moment in time --- will continue.
When you say you have been unable to find a trend definition that consistently works for you, what is your definition of "consistently works"?
All the ideas you list above for defining a trend work for me with excellent consistency, meaning I have rules for trading off these trend definitions that have produced net profit over series' of trades for years now.
Consistency is not certainty. All your threads seem to indicate a quest for certainty. Consistently profitable trading is based on positive expectancy, not certainty.
Your trading plan based on research and testing over a large sample size (such as applying a set of trade entry and trade management rules to 500 appearances of a particular setup and finding enough positive expectancy to produce a net profit after slippage and commissions) will provide the consistency you seek without any need for certainty in predicting the outcome of any individual trade.
Think of a well-researched and tested trading plan as a car that will take you through the streets of the Market City each day as you look for potentially profitable opportunities. If you took the car to a good mechanic and got the seal of approval (research, development & testing phase) before buying it, the chances of a breakdown are reduced. If you drive mindfully and safely, and wear a seat belt (stay focused and patient, follow your setup/entry rules, and honor your risk management plan), your chance of getting killed in an accident is quite low, and your chance of being available to take advantage of every opportunity is high.
I know several traders who have absolutely everything they need to extract ample profit from the market every week. They have well-researched and tested trade ideas with specific rules for entry and exit, yet they're unable to realize their dream because of common bad habits related to fear of uncertainty and/or a never-ending quest for certainty (usually in the forms of further testing, changing rules, adding/removing indicators, testing other markets, and so on).
There is a level of certainty in trading and if I were to express it in terms of tossing a coin for a living, it would look much like one of these scenarios:
1. You toss a fair coin. For every head you receive $130; for every tail you pay $100.
2. You toss a coin that is balanced to come up heads 60% of the time. For every head you receive $130; for every tail you pay $130.
3. You toss a coin that's balanced to come up heads 30% of the time. For every head you receive $500; for every tail you pay $180.
4. You toss a coin that is balanced to come up heads 90% of the time. For every head you receive $50; for every tail you pay $250.
If you could choose any of these coins and toss it for a living based on the risk:reward plan, would you do so?
06-23-13 10:04 PM
My mentor taught me classic TA patterns for free. These patterns are available for free (http://www.daytradingcoach.com/dayt...ysis-course.htm), and in inexpensive books.
I have an individual method of trading off these classic TA patterns. I've posted my strategies via annotated charts here on ET. I've taught my strategies to several others. None of the people I've taught them to have been able to make a living off them. It has nothing to do with their trading plans (all good plans); it has to do with their inability to trade their plans because of a desire for more certainty.
These strategies have been working for the 3 years I've been trading them and they appear to have worked for my mentor for many more years than that. Since they've been around for at least a few decades, I can see they've been working at least that long.
The only adaptation I've had to make to my core TA-based trading plan is when the volatility died down last year in the instrument I trade, I reduced my stops and targets accordingly.
Every one of these patterns are ambushes at times and always have been.
That's what risk management rules are for.
06-23-13 10:12 PM
Quote from marketsurfer:
No, it's not and can not be predictive. Even the MTA disagrees with you ( to the best of my knowledge). If it was predictive, why wouldn't the super computers that search non stop for such patterns, find them, exploit them and cause them to cease being predictive?
My personal hypothesis is that all the programmed trading has made them more predictive than ever. I'm often astounded at how many times in a row a particular setup will hit my profit target before hitting my stop.
Keep in mind that the big money that moves price can't just jump in and out all at once; they have strategies for building positions and exiting positions. These strategies become apparent when you study price action and develop your own plan around it.
I don't need to trade 50, 100, 500, or 1000 oil contracts at a time, so I don't have to worry about becoming the "mark" for market makers or about outsmarting another large entity that has to trade that kind of size to scale in and out of longer term positions/hedges.
I can trade my piker size, latching onto the big bad sharks like a little remora:
"The remora benefits by using the host as transport and protection, and also feeds on materials dropped by the host."
06-23-13 10:29 PM
Surf, I'm curious about something. If you believe there's no way to predict the odds of a directional price move based on the technical analysis of what price has been doing, then why do you think certain patterns repeat so much more often than they fail?
I'm looking at a daily chart of the ES going back to June 2012 and I see price pull back down to the rising 50-day moving average on 6 consecutive occasions and result in a directional move of 50 handles or more without closing below that 50EMA, meaning very low risk for significant reward.
How is it a pattern can repeat that often without a fake-out or "ambush" or outright failure?
пʼятниця, 17 травня 2013 р.
Full time trader reccomends
Syprik
Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 248
05-15-13 07:08 AM
Had some hesitation posting this, but I guess if it motivates 1 or 2, why not. I truly adore this profession, and want other truly motivated persons to give it a fair shot. A superfluous wave of negative attitude has in some ways taken over this site. Perhaps small anecdotes like this will help off-set it. I wrote this on another finance forum (NP) I frequent, will just copy and paste here with some amendments for privacy/updates...
Perhaps my own trading timeline going from part-time retail to career professional will be slightly insightful (will keep it abbreviated):
I'm 31-35 yrs old. After wrapping up grad school (mech engineering @ top 5 univ, early 2000's), worked in respective field for ~3yrs. Had great interest in trading dating back to late undergrad yrs. Made a difficult decision to devote ~60% of 1st year salary to a capital trading block. Keep in mind I was a single bachelor, 23-25, no dependents, no mortgage, no significant overhead costs, ~$750 rent, car paid off, no school loans (tx to acad scholarship and generous parents). It was approximately $2000/month in living expenses year one. For ~1.5 of the first 2 yrs @ engineering position, almost every Mon-Thurs evening of work week I devoted 2-4hrs to educating myself & developing position trade ideas. Endless time wasted running into dead-ends, as I was beyond naive and lacked experience to know which way to run. I even spent time chasing momentum pump & dump plays at Raging Bull/Investors Hub. It required serious sacrifice to personal life. Around end of year 1, actively started to swing trade an initial ~$30k trading block magnified by 2x margin utilizing volatile US equity small & mid cap issues. Was able to monitor positions 3-5x times per day when @ work. From that initial stage of active trading, over the next 1.5yrs was able to increase the initial block by ~4.5x net. Brunt of return came from three stand-out stocks, including one OTCBB that went from $1.50 to $12. Never had more than 6 stocks in portfolio at one given time. Technical/fundamental mixed approach. With such a result, was able to convince and secure a $100k interest free loan from my father. The agreement entitled him to silently share a joint account with me to monitor my risk/positions, with the right he could pull his $100k at any point. My equity was first to take a drawdown hit. Over the next 10 months, increased the net capital yet another ~30% after a brief 10% draw-down.
Three months before submitting my resignation I finally became comfortable and convinced to go full-time. Another stipulation of the loan was I had to have a full-time "secure" salary, so 3-4 months after my resignation I was obliged to return the initial loan amount. With almost $200k free & clear trading capital, 1.5 years of "bare-bones" living expenses tucked away, and a healthy initial dose of trading experience, I began my journey. ~Eight years later, I'm now a small independent futures trading business that I'm confident would rank in top 10% of independent trader CME exchange members (capital size). Consider myself very fortunate, and could calmly retire tomorrow. Outside a relatively small block I manage for my wife and parents, trade zero opm. Contract out programming development work when needed (ie freelancer, fcm recommended parties, etc) and lease an IMM @ CME from time to time (depends on what type of strategies I plan to run, thus use 3 month lease terms). I have almost exclusively traded futures since mid-2006. RIMM, AAPL, and some dry bulk shippers were the only equities I touched through 2007. ES 90% of volume, 10yr/6E a very distant 2 & 3. I strictly trade the large futures contracts due to significant liquidity, leverage, most favorable tax structure, cost @ higher volume, market access (all in that order of importance).
You must not be afraid of leverage. Everyone talks about over-levering (yes, beyond critical), but not many discuss the silent killer after you have some experience under your belt: under-leverage. I'm a clean cut, relatively nerdy & passive persona, but one thing you really need in this business is brass balls & stamina to get through the daily grind. You hear it said in passing, it is not an exaggeration. If you don't have it inherently, be patient as it takes some time to build up. I'm not going to give an exact example, but say I had $500k in capital in 2007. In that era I would have taken $100k of that block, and swore it off as gone. Heavily levered it up (ex, $4k-5k capital/ES contract or ~2-2.25% fixed fraction). The remaining $400k used for far less risk position sizing. That early, calculated aggressiveness while I was trading well really helped moved the arrow forward. Now I use a very conservative fixed-fraction position sizing of around 0.2% per strategy as I'm esp keen on protection. Since late 2006, I'm strictly intra-day for 95+% of my volume. I deploy 5-6 active strategies for ES, roughly half momentum, half mean-revert. Each relatively small/conservative on their own, but when summed out end of month, very strong. I strongly discourage relying on 1-2 "bread n butter" methods. Fell into this trap plenty of times through-out my journey. Current winning ES trades average in the 8-10 tick range in present volatility. 2008/2009 was an incredibly large gift as the volatility catapulted my accounts to a different realm. So, ultimately there is no denying it: I had some good blind luck at the onset, fortunate circumstances not available to everyone, and timing. Another tremendous mental backstop is my wife is a clinical research engineer (manager) at a large medical device company. If I were to have a bad year, she could support us without blinking an eye.
Moral of this story: give yourself a fair shot by going in with a decent size capital block, hold reasonable expectations, and work your ass off. Going at it full-time with only $25k is reckless imo. Swinging that size block while you work full-time is the smart decision. I would wager too many think they can get this off the ground in a few years. Give yourself 3-5yrs to build the full-time block. If you are good, once you get to that 150-250k range via your after-work efforts, that first 1MM can come very quickly once full-time. Trust me, compounding/exponential growth is a sight to see, no rush to get there.
Best of luck.
Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 248
05-15-13 07:08 AMHad some hesitation posting this, but I guess if it motivates 1 or 2, why not. I truly adore this profession, and want other truly motivated persons to give it a fair shot. A superfluous wave of negative attitude has in some ways taken over this site. Perhaps small anecdotes like this will help off-set it. I wrote this on another finance forum (NP) I frequent, will just copy and paste here with some amendments for privacy/updates...
Perhaps my own trading timeline going from part-time retail to career professional will be slightly insightful (will keep it abbreviated):
I'm 31-35 yrs old. After wrapping up grad school (mech engineering @ top 5 univ, early 2000's), worked in respective field for ~3yrs. Had great interest in trading dating back to late undergrad yrs. Made a difficult decision to devote ~60% of 1st year salary to a capital trading block. Keep in mind I was a single bachelor, 23-25, no dependents, no mortgage, no significant overhead costs, ~$750 rent, car paid off, no school loans (tx to acad scholarship and generous parents). It was approximately $2000/month in living expenses year one. For ~1.5 of the first 2 yrs @ engineering position, almost every Mon-Thurs evening of work week I devoted 2-4hrs to educating myself & developing position trade ideas. Endless time wasted running into dead-ends, as I was beyond naive and lacked experience to know which way to run. I even spent time chasing momentum pump & dump plays at Raging Bull/Investors Hub. It required serious sacrifice to personal life. Around end of year 1, actively started to swing trade an initial ~$30k trading block magnified by 2x margin utilizing volatile US equity small & mid cap issues. Was able to monitor positions 3-5x times per day when @ work. From that initial stage of active trading, over the next 1.5yrs was able to increase the initial block by ~4.5x net. Brunt of return came from three stand-out stocks, including one OTCBB that went from $1.50 to $12. Never had more than 6 stocks in portfolio at one given time. Technical/fundamental mixed approach. With such a result, was able to convince and secure a $100k interest free loan from my father. The agreement entitled him to silently share a joint account with me to monitor my risk/positions, with the right he could pull his $100k at any point. My equity was first to take a drawdown hit. Over the next 10 months, increased the net capital yet another ~30% after a brief 10% draw-down.
Three months before submitting my resignation I finally became comfortable and convinced to go full-time. Another stipulation of the loan was I had to have a full-time "secure" salary, so 3-4 months after my resignation I was obliged to return the initial loan amount. With almost $200k free & clear trading capital, 1.5 years of "bare-bones" living expenses tucked away, and a healthy initial dose of trading experience, I began my journey. ~Eight years later, I'm now a small independent futures trading business that I'm confident would rank in top 10% of independent trader CME exchange members (capital size). Consider myself very fortunate, and could calmly retire tomorrow. Outside a relatively small block I manage for my wife and parents, trade zero opm. Contract out programming development work when needed (ie freelancer, fcm recommended parties, etc) and lease an IMM @ CME from time to time (depends on what type of strategies I plan to run, thus use 3 month lease terms). I have almost exclusively traded futures since mid-2006. RIMM, AAPL, and some dry bulk shippers were the only equities I touched through 2007. ES 90% of volume, 10yr/6E a very distant 2 & 3. I strictly trade the large futures contracts due to significant liquidity, leverage, most favorable tax structure, cost @ higher volume, market access (all in that order of importance).
You must not be afraid of leverage. Everyone talks about over-levering (yes, beyond critical), but not many discuss the silent killer after you have some experience under your belt: under-leverage. I'm a clean cut, relatively nerdy & passive persona, but one thing you really need in this business is brass balls & stamina to get through the daily grind. You hear it said in passing, it is not an exaggeration. If you don't have it inherently, be patient as it takes some time to build up. I'm not going to give an exact example, but say I had $500k in capital in 2007. In that era I would have taken $100k of that block, and swore it off as gone. Heavily levered it up (ex, $4k-5k capital/ES contract or ~2-2.25% fixed fraction). The remaining $400k used for far less risk position sizing. That early, calculated aggressiveness while I was trading well really helped moved the arrow forward. Now I use a very conservative fixed-fraction position sizing of around 0.2% per strategy as I'm esp keen on protection. Since late 2006, I'm strictly intra-day for 95+% of my volume. I deploy 5-6 active strategies for ES, roughly half momentum, half mean-revert. Each relatively small/conservative on their own, but when summed out end of month, very strong. I strongly discourage relying on 1-2 "bread n butter" methods. Fell into this trap plenty of times through-out my journey. Current winning ES trades average in the 8-10 tick range in present volatility. 2008/2009 was an incredibly large gift as the volatility catapulted my accounts to a different realm. So, ultimately there is no denying it: I had some good blind luck at the onset, fortunate circumstances not available to everyone, and timing. Another tremendous mental backstop is my wife is a clinical research engineer (manager) at a large medical device company. If I were to have a bad year, she could support us without blinking an eye.
Moral of this story: give yourself a fair shot by going in with a decent size capital block, hold reasonable expectations, and work your ass off. Going at it full-time with only $25k is reckless imo. Swinging that size block while you work full-time is the smart decision. I would wager too many think they can get this off the ground in a few years. Give yourself 3-5yrs to build the full-time block. If you are good, once you get to that 150-250k range via your after-work efforts, that first 1MM can come very quickly once full-time. Trust me, compounding/exponential growth is a sight to see, no rush to get there.
Best of luck.
субота, 19 січня 2013 р.
Steps to become profitable
Of all the things I did on my quest for consistent profitability, there were several that were harmful (such as trading live without a well-researched and tested trading plan).
Here are the steps that contributed to consistent profitability, listed in the order they should've been taken:
1. Research trading ideas by compiling statistical data over time through varying market environments (trending, ranging, chopping, calm, and volatile).
2. Develop entry and trade management rules for the ideas that indicate the highest odds of success.
3. In a simulated real-time environment, test these mini-plans.
4. Continue to study and tweak based strictly on statistical data, not on bias or feelings.
5. Discard any ideas that are not consistently profitable after commissions and slippage.
6. Practice trading the remaining ideas in sim for a period of time sufficient to have offered all the common market environments listed above. If you have difficulty following your trading plan, code the ideas into an automated trading system.
7. Trade live with smallest size, and size up accordingly as your account grows. If size affects your ability to follow your plan, trade small again, and consider automating to avoid "Thinking While Trading".
While practicing in sim, I highly recommend reading Mark Douglas' Trading in the Zone several times with a month of trading experience between readings.
I personally found the best trading ideas come from studying price action. A thorough study of price action reveals edges that do not degrade over time. The reason is that basic human nature is unlikely to change in your lifetime; it certainly hasn't changed much at all throughout recorded history.
Here are the steps that contributed to consistent profitability, listed in the order they should've been taken:
1. Research trading ideas by compiling statistical data over time through varying market environments (trending, ranging, chopping, calm, and volatile).
2. Develop entry and trade management rules for the ideas that indicate the highest odds of success.
3. In a simulated real-time environment, test these mini-plans.
4. Continue to study and tweak based strictly on statistical data, not on bias or feelings.
5. Discard any ideas that are not consistently profitable after commissions and slippage.
6. Practice trading the remaining ideas in sim for a period of time sufficient to have offered all the common market environments listed above. If you have difficulty following your trading plan, code the ideas into an automated trading system.
7. Trade live with smallest size, and size up accordingly as your account grows. If size affects your ability to follow your plan, trade small again, and consider automating to avoid "Thinking While Trading".
While practicing in sim, I highly recommend reading Mark Douglas' Trading in the Zone several times with a month of trading experience between readings.
I personally found the best trading ideas come from studying price action. A thorough study of price action reveals edges that do not degrade over time. The reason is that basic human nature is unlikely to change in your lifetime; it certainly hasn't changed much at all throughout recorded history.
Pa setups
I'm curious what, specifically, would constitute proof to you that a trader, trading a single futures contract (to ensure there's no average-down opportunity), can in fact be consistently profitable applying one or more of the following standard technical price action concepts:
1. Entering a with-trend position on a pullback
2. Entering a with-trend position on a break of a previous high/low
3. Fading the extremes of a tradeable range
4. Entering a counter-trend position based on the old 1-2-3 reversal setup
1. Entering a with-trend position on a pullback
2. Entering a with-trend position on a break of a previous high/low
3. Fading the extremes of a tradeable range
4. Entering a counter-trend position based on the old 1-2-3 reversal setup
четвер, 20 грудня 2012 р.
NoDoji about S/R and testing
12-19-12 08:24 PM
Quote from clarodina:
how you guys deal with overshoot or undershoot of support and resistance level? How to know whether price would overshoot or undershoot?
Homework (to be done on 50 occurrences of the setup in your trading time frame):
1. Choose an S/R level (trend line, parallel channel line, previous horizontal S/R, moving average).
2. On smaller time frame chart (such as 1-min chart for 5-min traders, or an hourly chart for very short term swing traders), compare the patterns of trades where S/R holds (with or without an overshoot) to the patterns of trades where S/R fails.
3. Note if any particular price action pattern occurs more often than not.
4. Use patterns that occur more often than not as a guide to setting up rules for trading off S/R levels.
5. Repeat for each type of S/R level.
As a 5-min trader, I use the classic 1-2-3 reversal pattern on a 1-min chart. Highest probability pattern I've found so far.
http://www.dacharts.com/123.htm
The examples show the LH and HL reversals, but DT/DB's and FBO's work just as well.
I also tend to take the early entry (the "X"), because I'm cheap these days.
середа, 12 грудня 2012 р.
NoDoji trading stats
Trading for a living is not about feelings, it's about hard stats. Feelings are fine if you're taking a fixed amount of money you plan to lose to the casino to see if you can get lucky. The reason your emotions are getting in the way is because of how you feel about setups, for better or worse.
Trading for a living means combining setups and money management rules that place the odds in your favor over a large enough sample size to generate profits despite the random distribution of individual wins and losses.
I never "feel" an edge technically (except those "continuation in a very strong trend" setups). I "know" an edge technically. I "know" that based on the hard statistical data I've compiled for a given pattern in a given context that the odds are in my favor. I also know that the outcome of this individual trade will be random, but if I trade the same pattern/context over and over again, the net outcome of the randomly distributed individual outcomes will be positive.
I no longer care how the setup feels or how it feels once I'm in the trade, because feelings used to sabotage my profit potential badly. I'll never forget my friend and I taking a short trade together, both of us "feeling" that there was support at a nearby level as the trade moved in our favor, both of exiting quickly for .10 profit at the exact same moment, only to watch price immediately break and drop over 1.00 in minutes.
Wolf knows my trading well and can confirm that I am now much better at sitting with the discomfort come hell or high water until the market says loud and clear that the setup is no longer valid.
I can't emphasize enough that feelings have no place in trading. You do research, accrue knowledge, develop rules based on that knowledge, then hold your nose and buy or sell when (and only when) your rules tell you to.
Trading for a living means combining setups and money management rules that place the odds in your favor over a large enough sample size to generate profits despite the random distribution of individual wins and losses.
I never "feel" an edge technically (except those "continuation in a very strong trend" setups). I "know" an edge technically. I "know" that based on the hard statistical data I've compiled for a given pattern in a given context that the odds are in my favor. I also know that the outcome of this individual trade will be random, but if I trade the same pattern/context over and over again, the net outcome of the randomly distributed individual outcomes will be positive.
I no longer care how the setup feels or how it feels once I'm in the trade, because feelings used to sabotage my profit potential badly. I'll never forget my friend and I taking a short trade together, both of us "feeling" that there was support at a nearby level as the trade moved in our favor, both of exiting quickly for .10 profit at the exact same moment, only to watch price immediately break and drop over 1.00 in minutes.
Wolf knows my trading well and can confirm that I am now much better at sitting with the discomfort come hell or high water until the market says loud and clear that the setup is no longer valid.
I can't emphasize enough that feelings have no place in trading. You do research, accrue knowledge, develop rules based on that knowledge, then hold your nose and buy or sell when (and only when) your rules tell you to.
пʼятниця, 7 грудня 2012 р.
intraday trend trading
If you buy every correction in a bull market, you'll only be wrong once--the top. If you sell every rally in a bear market, you'll only be wrong once-- the bottom.
As far as adding to a loser I will NEVER do that, why screw around with a loser when you can kill it and pick a winner? Most people like to pick bottoms they think it's a "Good Deal" you want a good deal go haggle on a car or goto walmart looking for a good deal in the market will get you SCREWED.
Attached is how I trade off the 5min, follow the blue lines, when trend is down sell when it's up buy on pullbacks to the BB's or the blue lines. Pretty easy right? Most people think it needs to be damn hard to make money and they lose the most.
EDIT- One last thing, watch for time of day specially 10.30,12.0,1.0.2.30..four key trading times...
That is so funny man, I did about the same thing for years on the 3 min, I used BB's set to 18/2 and RSI set to 6. All data was a bar chart. When price closes outside of the bb with a RSI divergence I would counter trend trade it. Worked all day every day
I shorted eur/gpb yesterday but no one cares about what I do, it's not that exciting lol. I am up 15% this month Here is a chart
http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=42555&d=1211502102
I spent well over 1000 hours looking for the "System" that would not lose, guess what it's not out there lol. I can hit 80-85% winners and what really changes the game is money management, if I risk 50 points I want to get 75-100. That put's you well over 90% if traded right. I STILL close winners too fast but taking 100 points on a 50 risk is good MM to me. Just part of the game Also got long USD/CHF @ 1.0435
Check out the 5min with BB 18/2 and 21EMA, use the 30min 1hr for trend and play the pullbacks. If the BB go flat CT the shit outa it with the divergence of your choice 2%+ again today easy shit and that's with the 10am new spike I almost got hammered on.
p.s. Don't wake up at 9:50am and trade w/o checking the news events
If you don't know how to trade I say cash really. Anything in the market is going to go down and remember you can get back in anytime. I have had 3 trades in the past 2 weeks and 0 this week. I have no edge so I stay out.
say more selling to come, My new goal is 2% a day or 10 pips, been hitting it the past 11 days without any problem. Got tired of trying to come up with longer term money management. Ya the 5min charts sucks but it makes me money.
As far as adding to a loser I will NEVER do that, why screw around with a loser when you can kill it and pick a winner? Most people like to pick bottoms they think it's a "Good Deal" you want a good deal go haggle on a car or goto walmart looking for a good deal in the market will get you SCREWED.
Attached is how I trade off the 5min, follow the blue lines, when trend is down sell when it's up buy on pullbacks to the BB's or the blue lines. Pretty easy right? Most people think it needs to be damn hard to make money and they lose the most.
EDIT- One last thing, watch for time of day specially 10.30,12.0,1.0.2.30..four key trading times...
That is so funny man, I did about the same thing for years on the 3 min, I used BB's set to 18/2 and RSI set to 6. All data was a bar chart. When price closes outside of the bb with a RSI divergence I would counter trend trade it. Worked all day every day
I shorted eur/gpb yesterday but no one cares about what I do, it's not that exciting lol. I am up 15% this month Here is a chart
http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=42555&d=1211502102
I spent well over 1000 hours looking for the "System" that would not lose, guess what it's not out there lol. I can hit 80-85% winners and what really changes the game is money management, if I risk 50 points I want to get 75-100. That put's you well over 90% if traded right. I STILL close winners too fast but taking 100 points on a 50 risk is good MM to me. Just part of the game Also got long USD/CHF @ 1.0435
Check out the 5min with BB 18/2 and 21EMA, use the 30min 1hr for trend and play the pullbacks. If the BB go flat CT the shit outa it with the divergence of your choice 2%+ again today easy shit and that's with the 10am new spike I almost got hammered on.
p.s. Don't wake up at 9:50am and trade w/o checking the news events
If you don't know how to trade I say cash really. Anything in the market is going to go down and remember you can get back in anytime. I have had 3 trades in the past 2 weeks and 0 this week. I have no edge so I stay out.
say more selling to come, My new goal is 2% a day or 10 pips, been hitting it the past 11 days without any problem. Got tired of trying to come up with longer term money management. Ya the 5min charts sucks but it makes me money.
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