| bighog Registered: Aug 2005 Posts: 2228 | 07-25-13 03:31 AM Who has looked into there average daily "take" from the days range?A good well disciplined day trader with an "EDGE" defined and constructed by that individual only should be able to average approx. booking 1/2 of the daily range. That includes all whip-saw days that can be rough on the best of us. What douses the bad days are the runner (trend) days where we get more than 1/2 the intraday range.Anyone that can get a consistent 1/2 booked on average is a really good trader. The key to hitting that nut is understanding what worked yesterday is out to fool you today. There are only a very select "action" moves that work for whatever your 'edge" is. Momentum works for me while chop eats me alive if I try to outsmart anything but momentum runners. True, at times the daily range can get rather punk which must be considered. (there are other toys to work in times of slack though if desired)The days we get a bunch of handles, ticks are sweet, the days we see less workable moves are not to be discouraging because we know the average will be ok. The good news about tough days is we no longer give back profits, like in the beginning where a weeks charmed trading got trashed by being a fool.An interesting stat would be if anyone that has been showing consistent profitable trading can feel good by knowing "ON AVERAGE" their trading has improved by booking larger and larger amounts of the days range............Not the amount of money made, that can always be improved by adding cars. But real improvement.  | |
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| bighog Registered: Aug 2005 Posts: 2228 | 06-22-13 03:12 PM
Typical time spent entering and exiting orders on a daily basis: From 0930 est to about 1400 unless a fed report is coming out or I am casually watching for an afternoon reversal signal like a "DC" in ES. A DC (double cross) is a reversal where price recrosses the 20 and the previous trend.........look for a basing first and never forget the 1-2-3. Casual glances at a screen (4 toys actually) is all that is needed to glean for a prospective upcoming event. The difficult part of trading is in the beginning, then it gets SIMPLE. Simple is as simple does.  PS: Many "DC" signals come out of the blue and those are usually the ones that run for a solid 10 handles if not completely reversing the ENTIRE early trend of the day. | |
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| bighog Registered: Aug 2005 Posts: 2228 | 07-03-13 01:42 AM
PS: Intraday swinging is what works for me. ES is still number uno....... that instrument works for intraday swings because the volume is so thick that "monkey see, Monkey do" simply works. I get the runs and avoid the flatish ema and "all is good" Trendline (visualized in the head) 20 ema plotted, early run, a late reversal.......those are all that is need to seek out.......15 handles. (8 trades is es to get that amount, not two, ha) | |
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| bighog Registered: Aug 2005 Posts: 2228 | 07-21-13 04:25 PM Truth be known: Watching price moves 'within' the bars period (5min) will eliminate any need to follow volume because those movements tell you who was in control and butt spanking the other guy.....Also, if one gets a good read of price moves 'within' the 5m bar there is no sense looking at a 1min bar, peeking at a 1m bar is a distraction from the 5m. I assure you, if reading the 5m correctly, you can be AHEAD of the 1m bar.A well developed trader watching price moves taking place is innately visualizing what is "COMING NEXT" and digesting the INFORMATION being delivered in order to make his/her next trade/exit based on that and that information only (unless he/she is determined to either let the max stop get tagged and/or let it ride to targeted exit). There will be nothing printed in the 1m bars that has not already been seen as the action in the 5m unfolds in real time. Watching the dom is a joke at best, the dom has about as much relevance to profits as a commercial has to a great movie........just useless dribble until the action returns in what really matters.How the trade is finessed once filled is what makes the whole process gel. All of the proper ingredients, right temperature and watchful eye will go to waste if one does not stir correctly.PS: No, I am not picking on nodoji and her using the 1m chart,  PSS: Let us change laws so we can eliminate these flying rats once and for all http://icwdm.org/handbook/birds/Gulls.asp | |
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| bighog Registered: Aug 2005 Posts: 2228 | 07-27-13 01:05 AM I will share what I call an "EDGE" for the opening bar range breakout strategy called "My 4x4 that uses no gas"Keep in mind this is for the 0930 EST bars range. We are talking ES here. The 4x4 means 4 contracts each trade and seeking 4 handles (16 ticks) and if/when satisfied book the trade/s and move on to your regular day trade tactics for the rest of the day, or just call $800 good for the day if desired. Surprise yourself!The STOP loss can either be the other side of the bars range limit or anything in between depending on how your breakfast is feeding your brain.If the STOP is the other extreme end of the ORB, then by all means do a SAR. I like smaller STOPS and will wait to see how price acts as it nails either side........BUT SAR works best in tighter open bar range.In general, unless we get a sissy type whipsaw over and over open, a couple small stop-outs will be reversed once price takes off for a few handles.Some days, price takes out either one side or the other of the orb (open range bar) and never looks back.Extend the mechanical contest to 5 handles on 4 cars and you just nailed a grand. Depending on the action itself (subjective) I will punch out at +2 or +3 handles and reenter for the 4. The nice days are when you get 4 handles in a single trade, sweet!That is what I call an EDGE for the opening of the day.......... PS: yeah, yeah, I know, it is not wise to give away secrets in a public forum, LOL. But, what many new boys/girls only figure out later is that.........you want friends following you so you can profit from them..  | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-26-13 11:02 PM It's a mechanical strategy with specific rules. It's a with-trend entry tactic in a strong trend using a 1-min chart for intraday scalping. I've already shared a couple of simplified versions of it on ET. If you want to refine it, have at it. Since there is no bad entry in a strong trend, any similar tactic will do.Just look at a 1-min chart of CL and observe when price breaks out of a 5-min range, triangle, or HOD/LOD by at least 10 ticks. Make notes about what happens next. If you do the work, you'll find out how to easily profit from these instances when the CL becomes the poster child for Newton's First Law of Motion. | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-27-13 04:52 AM Classic setups can be found here, but you have to do the work to determine a) the context in which to trade them and b) how to manage your risk/reward.http://www.daytradingcoach.com/dayt...ysis-course.htmThis little pattern is one of the best, IMHO:http://www.dacharts.com/123.htmIt's not always lower high (off the top) or higher low (off the bottom). Sometimes it's double top (or double bottom) and sometimes it's slightly higher high or slightly lower low (failed breakout of previous high/low).Bob Volman describes some great setups in his book "Forex Price Action Scalping".If you ever took calculus in school and got at least a "B" average, then you may find Al Brooks "Reading Price Charts Bar By Bar" the holy bible of price action setups. | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-27-13 07:01 PM
I'm purely a chartist and whether I look at daily, weekly and monthly price charts over decades or I look at intraday charts over years, I can't see anything different, but I constantly see posts on this forum that markets have changed. Are these changes related to something other than price movement? | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-27-13 07:12 PM
This is my top advice for everyone who asks me for help. Choose a single setup/tactic and master it to the point that you see it and you place the order without further thought or hesitation. When I was absolute beginner with just over 3 months of trading experience (and no specific plan other than trade entry triggers), I decided I wanted to be a day trader instead of a swing trader. I found a setup that made absolute sense to me (basically a 1-2-3 setup) and I paper traded it for a few weeks very successfully. Finally I took the plunge and started trading it live and I think I made around $17K in three weeks. Then I started messing with a simple plan and commenced to lose a lot of money. It took me a long time to get back to what in essence is that same simple plan. | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-27-13 07:36 PM
There are periods of price action where the setup appears but there's no follow through. I've had strings of 6 or more small losers/break-even trades, then suddenly the game's on, you're on the stronger team because of TA, and the whole team's got your back. I once had a day with a 9% win rate and ended up with a good day's pay as a result of using TA to ensure I'm positioned with the stronger team once the scrimmages are over and the big game is underway. | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-27-13 08:22 PM
It's not randomness. TA allows me to be positioned in the right direction when price makes the big move. The trader without a plan or the one who trades based on strong opinion or the inexperienced trader would likely have misinterpreted what price was saying or been completely unaware of how to catch a runner in the first place. Such a person would be far more likely to have traded emotionally, ended up on wrong team, and instead of quickly cutting the loss and reversing sides for the big winner, would've averaged down during the breakout run and cried "Uncle!" just before the end of the trend. I've done this personally, and I've watched other traders do this many times. What they do is random, meaning they're gambling. My TA-based trading does not involve gambling (random bets). I know in advance that if I trade every valid signal and manage the trade according to the fixed rules of my plan, I will be profitable enough at the end of the month to cover living expenses, entertainment expenses, taxes, and retirement savings. | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-28-13 07:55 PM
Consistently profitable trading definitely flies in the face of human nature. Human nature wants to get in at tops and bottoms (get the best possible deal), and human nature will be imprinted with the memory of times when it succeeds in doing this because of the huge ego gratification that ensues and will sweep under the rug the failures (addiction to random rewards). Human nature finds it very easy to do what feels right at the time even if there's no statistical evidence backing up the decision (and even when statistical evidence is against it), and human nature is conditioned to believe that you must fight for what you believe in and when something feels right it's easy to believe in it, and so human nature ensures that most traders will trade their bias rather than a positive expectancy plan. When what you've been doing is wrong and you're a losing trader, doing what's right will feel wrong. Human nature finds it very difficult to do what feels wrong because that would require acting against its beliefs. Even when presented with objective statistical evidence backing up actions that produce the best possible overall result, human nature ensures that most people will act on their beliefs. | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-24-13 12:24 AM
You'll just have to trust that I trade this way, because I'm not on display, I'm trading for a living. Pull up a 5-min and 1-min chart of CL and annotate these trades. You'll see how intraday scalpers use S/R and pure price action to extract bits of moves from the active little instruments like CL: Preparation: Prior to the crude oil pit open I identify a channeling down trend in the overnight session and draw support and resistance lines, connecting the swing highs from the overnight session and placing a parallel channel line across the latest lower low (8:20am ET). I notice that the last new low came out of narrow range consolidation contained by the 7:45 bar. The low of that consolidation range is 106.24. If the down trending channel continues to hold, that price level just about coincides with the down trend line I drew connecting the overnight swing highs. That will be key resistance. Trading begins: Just before the open, I place a sell stop to trade to the short side off the 1-min chart (1-min with-trend continuation for a test of the previous low.) The pit session opens and price makes a bullish run up right through the significantly lower high that printed during the 8:40 ET bar. That was a surprise. I realize there is very key resistance overhead and since there was no pause or pullback for me to get long in that opening run, I place an offer to sell the upper trend line which happens to coincide with the narrow range consolidation low described previously. This is an anticipatory trade; I’m using technical price analysis involving confluence of two identical resistance levels to enter a low risk trade (13 tick stop loss) in the direction of the overall trend (which is still down until that channel breaks out). My offer is taken and price immediately turns. Because price ran non-stop to that upper channel, I assume the pullback to the lower channel line will be interrupted by defense at every level, so I place a hard target just above the round number for a 21-tick profit. I see a 1-min with-trend continuation pattern setting up for a long trade, but price hasn’t broken out of the down trending channel yet, so I do not trade this pattern by itself. I only trade this pattern in the context of a well-defined trend, which at this point is still down. By the close of the 9:11 bar on the 1-min chart, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern off that upper trend line is in play and I that’s my signal to get short. Price comes within 1 tick of my offer and stalls. I pay a bit extra to get in at 106.12 because the R:R still fits within my plan: My risk will be 13 ticks and my hard target will be 15 ticks, with a bid to take profit placed 1 tick above the swing high that broke out during the opening run, the break of the 8:40 bar high on the 5-min chart. My bid is lifted almost to the tick which alerts me to calculate the R:R of a 1-min long entry from that level. I see immediately that there’s congestion between camps, so I wait for clarity. Despite the strength of the run up from the open, the larger channel could still be very much in play, meaning more short setups coming. The price action of the 9:20 bar on the 1-min chart clears the congestion and I look for a long entry setup. The close of the 9:22 bar tells me further pullback will be unlikely if that bar’s high breaks, so I place a buy stop there to position long, looking for a test of, and likely break of, the upper trend line. The trend line breaks, as does the previous swing high, but price stops short of breaking through the 106.35 R from pre-market. I give price a couple chances to try again and end up taking a 10-tick scalp. Price then pulls back to my entry price during the 9:29 bar and closes with that price as the low. This level is approximately a pullback to that previous down trend line resistance (previous R becomes S), and I jump in long again at 106.21. I have no target calculated other than “a break of 106.35” in my head and I quickly draw a 1-min channel across the 106.32 high and it looks like price should hit 106.39. I place a 20-tick hard target and prepare to take a scalper’s profit if it doesn’t get there. My offer is taken and I call it a day. Now I've revealed all the price action trading secrets of the magic price action gurus. There's big edges in them there price bars. Take what you will and enjoy! | |
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| NoDoji Registered: May 2008 Posts: 8301 | 07-17-13 05:43 PM
You may understand price action, but your gambling has addicted you to random rewards, and you're not trading a plan. Willpower rarely overcomes addiction, but 12-step recovery programs have helped "hopeless" cases turn their lives around as long as the addict continues to do what works every single day. In the Foreword to Mark Douglas' Trading in the Zone, Thom Hartle writes: "The 95% failure rate makes sense when you consider how most of us experience life, using skills learned as we grow. When it comes to trading, however, it turns out that the skills we learn to earn high marks in school, advance our careers, and create relationships with other people, the skills we are taught that should carry us through life, turn out to be inappropriate for trading. Traders, we find out, must learn to think in terms of probabilities and to surrender all of the skills we have acquired to achieve virtually every other aspect of our lives." Nearly every facet of our lives revolves around the quest for something as close to certainty as possible, and success is often defined by finding oneself rated in the top percentiles. Yet successful trading depends on narrow margins of positive expectancy and the ability to accept what feels like "failure" all the time. Trading losses in a winning system are crucial to the profitability of the system because we cannot know the outcome of any individual trade, only the odds of net profitability over a series of trades. Mark Douglas captures the essence of profitable trading with what I like to call The 5 & 7: The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading: 1. Anything can happen. 2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique. The 7 Principles of Consistency: 1. I objectively identify my edges. 2. I predefine the risk of every trade. 3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade. 4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation. 5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me. 6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors. 7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them. Douglas tells us (and the emphasis is mine), "...to whatever degree you haven’t accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully. To operate effectively in the trading environment, we need rules and boundaries to guide our behavior. It is a simple fact of trading that the potential exists to do enormous damage to ourselves – damage that can be way out of proportion to what we may think is possible. In trading, no one (except yourself) is going to force you to decide in advance what your risk is. In fact, what we have is a limitless environment, where virtually anything can happen at any moment and only the consistent winners define their risk in advance of putting on a trade. For everyone else, defining the risk in advance would force you to confront the reality that each trade has a probable outcome, meaning that it could be a loser. Consistent losers do almost anything to avoid accepting the reality that, no matter how good a trade looks, it could lose." If you want consistent success in trading, over time and through varying market conditions, if you want to trade for a living, at the very least you have to do ample research and develop a plan based on favorable probabilities. That’s the absolute minimum requirement. Then comes the real work: learning to trade your plan or automating your plan without overriding it. Mastering one part of your plan isn't good enough. It must be mastered as a whole. Positive expectancy comes from a combination of win rate and risk:reward ratio, just as hydrogen and oxygen are required to make water. If you learn to hold trades until you're stopped out or your profit target is filled, that may be a huge step forward for you psychologically, but if you haven't mastered the ability to trade every valid setup without hesitation, your excellent trade management ability won't help much at all. Or maybe you have no problem jumping on every valid trade opportunity that presents itself, but you move stops and targets around. There goes your edge! A positive expectancy trading plan offers an environment of certainty, but it doesn't feel like certainty in real time because it requires what we refer to as "losses" and the concept of "loss" has a negative connotation for us due to a lifetime of programming. In trading, losses that occur as part of a well-research trading plan are absolutely necessary, Without embracing them, you're attempting the equivalent of trying to quench your thirst by inhaling some hydrogen and then later inhaling some oxygen. | |
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