Definitely homeschool if you can! Look for homeschooling groups in your area that pool resources, but avoid groups with religious or political affiliations. You want your child(ren) to learn to think, not become domesticated puppets. A good non-sectarian homeschoolers group will have excellent resources. The group we worked with had parents who were professors/researchers at the local university, entrepreneurs, artists/performers (including a traveling circus family who offered classes in acrobatics and juggling when they were in the area). We had a library of books and other resources such as microscopes. We arranged for field trips which were truly engaging because the groups of children were very small, allowing for very in-depth hands-on experiences.
Do a lot of research to help you get over the idea that homeschooling requires textbooks (most textbooks are gawdawful), teaching to standardized tests (nice little robot creation device there), or 6 hours a day of work. The reason public school days have to be so long is because the majority of time is spent managing the behavior of large groups. One of the worst side effects of our public miseducation system (don't get me wrong, there are few, but very few, decent public schools) besides teaching children to take tests instead of to think creatively, is the conditioning of ADD and ADHD behavior through the combined mechanism of jumping from one subject to the next and allowing children to subsist on junk food all the while.
Here are three excellent books covering various aspects of education:
Free Range Learning by Laura Grace Weldon
The Underground History of American Education by John Taylor Gatto (former NY State and NYC Teacher of the Year)
The Unschooled Mind by Howard Gardner
Also, I recommend reading The Everything Toltec Wisdom Book, which I found to be very thought-provoking.
All the best to you, B!
вівторок, 28 лютого 2012 р.
субота, 25 лютого 2012 р.
NoDoji about profitabe retail traders
You're assuming that Dr. Steenbarger has met all small retail traders. Red_Ink documented in great detail his ability to trade for a living right here on ET, as has Lescor, Szeven, EricP, and Geez (who by the way called every trade with stops and profit targets in advance).
понеділок, 13 лютого 2012 р.
forex managed accounts
Let's see some good links of modern FX signals and managed accounts:
http://www.primeeaglefunds.com/services.html
http://www.suisseroom.com/aggressive_fund_16.html
http://myfxduplicate.com/
http://www.acmehedge.com/managed-accounts.php
http://eforex-trading.com/shop
http://www.forexenvy.com/
http://www.primeeaglefunds.com/services.html
http://www.suisseroom.com/aggressive_fund_16.html
http://myfxduplicate.com/
http://www.acmehedge.com/managed-accounts.php
http://eforex-trading.com/shop
http://www.forexenvy.com/
Global macro and trend following
For long term portfolio's (10 years+) I take a top down approach to security selection. Multi-factor modeling when valuing securities. Once the portfolio is optimised according to appropriate risk/return objectives I use Technical analysis for short-term market timing to enhance risk adjusted returns.
Current long term portfolio includes Emerging market equities (heavy weighting towards India), Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Nat Gas, Gold, Silver and BBB rated Bonds or above (Norway, Canda, U.S, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, UK, Germany and Mexico).
The first question for constructing portfolio starts with the specific risk/return profile over a specific time horizon that suits your circumstances. This then dictates the type of equities we will select for the portfolio. E.g if I am an aggressive trader/investor looking for outright growth then I should be willing to accept greater volatility in my portfolio, therefore my portfolio may generally consist of high beta stocks.
The specific top down approach will consist of finding the right countries to invest in. So in today’s world we may take the view that GDP growth is likely to come in the East over the next few years. You can use publications from the IMF or World Bank to get an idea of projected growth forecasts in various countries in the East. Now logically if a country is experiencing GDP growth then there are likely to be opportunities present in that country in the form of Equity investments.
Once you’ve identified the countries you want exposure to then it’s a question of estimating growth forecasts for individual equities and the price you’re willing to pay for them. There are many approaches to valuation but the basics involve finding companies that are likely to sustain quality earnings over your trading/investment time horizon. Furthermore, you also have to forecast the likely return over a given period based on the information you have about the company, its sector and the economy it operates in.
This is important because what you want to do is separate two types of risk that are prevalent in each asset class. Systematic and Unsystematic risk. Systematic risk deals with potential risks affecting financial markets in general. Case in point 2008 when every single asset class got hammered due to the collapse of the MBS market. This type of risk is extremely difficult to control and cannot be done by diversification strategies alone. Interest Rates, FX Rates, Unemployment and GDP are examples of systematic risks that can affect equity prices. These are the factors that can be used in a Multi-factor approach to forecasting future returns.
Key thing here though is Multicollinearity. Basically if you use a Macro Model like this to aid you then it’s critical that the factors you choose have low or no correlation between them. If you have two or three factors that are correlated with each other then really you have one factor composed of two or three sub variables that are responsible for your returns forecast. Our aim really is to isolate as many uncorrelated forces that meaningfully impact the the returns for a security. The better we are at doing this the lower our error rate is likely to will be when forecasting returns.
One you have a forecasted growth rate and some idea on the price you are willing to pay, technical analysis can be used to optimise your entry price to eek out some extra return for lower relative risk.
Current long term portfolio includes Emerging market equities (heavy weighting towards India), Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Nat Gas, Gold, Silver and BBB rated Bonds or above (Norway, Canda, U.S, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, UK, Germany and Mexico).
The first question for constructing portfolio starts with the specific risk/return profile over a specific time horizon that suits your circumstances. This then dictates the type of equities we will select for the portfolio. E.g if I am an aggressive trader/investor looking for outright growth then I should be willing to accept greater volatility in my portfolio, therefore my portfolio may generally consist of high beta stocks.
The specific top down approach will consist of finding the right countries to invest in. So in today’s world we may take the view that GDP growth is likely to come in the East over the next few years. You can use publications from the IMF or World Bank to get an idea of projected growth forecasts in various countries in the East. Now logically if a country is experiencing GDP growth then there are likely to be opportunities present in that country in the form of Equity investments.
Once you’ve identified the countries you want exposure to then it’s a question of estimating growth forecasts for individual equities and the price you’re willing to pay for them. There are many approaches to valuation but the basics involve finding companies that are likely to sustain quality earnings over your trading/investment time horizon. Furthermore, you also have to forecast the likely return over a given period based on the information you have about the company, its sector and the economy it operates in.
This is important because what you want to do is separate two types of risk that are prevalent in each asset class. Systematic and Unsystematic risk. Systematic risk deals with potential risks affecting financial markets in general. Case in point 2008 when every single asset class got hammered due to the collapse of the MBS market. This type of risk is extremely difficult to control and cannot be done by diversification strategies alone. Interest Rates, FX Rates, Unemployment and GDP are examples of systematic risks that can affect equity prices. These are the factors that can be used in a Multi-factor approach to forecasting future returns.
Key thing here though is Multicollinearity. Basically if you use a Macro Model like this to aid you then it’s critical that the factors you choose have low or no correlation between them. If you have two or three factors that are correlated with each other then really you have one factor composed of two or three sub variables that are responsible for your returns forecast. Our aim really is to isolate as many uncorrelated forces that meaningfully impact the the returns for a security. The better we are at doing this the lower our error rate is likely to will be when forecasting returns.
One you have a forecasted growth rate and some idea on the price you are willing to pay, technical analysis can be used to optimise your entry price to eek out some extra return for lower relative risk.
пʼятниця, 10 лютого 2012 р.
Finance books
Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach, Eighth Edition (repost)
Hal R. Varian, "Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach, Eighth Edition"
W. W. No.,on & C,,ny | 2010 | ISBN: 0393934241 | 739 pages | PDF | 3,1 MB
W. W. No.,on & C,,ny | 2010 | ISBN: 0393934241 | 739 pages | PDF | 3,1 MB
The #1 best-selling intermediate microeconomics text in the world is still the most modern and contemporary.
Varian is “the Adam Smith of the new discipline of Googlenomics.”—Stephen Levy, Wired
For over 20 years Hal Varian’s Intermediate Microeconomics has given students the most current and complete coverage of intermediate microeconomics at an appropriate mathematical level. The Eighth Edition includes contemporary case studies and examples and relevant coverage of the current economic crisis—all in focused, lecture-length chapters.
Behavioral Economics and Its Applications (Repost)
Peter Diamond, Hannu Vartiainen, "Behavioral Economics and Its Applications"
P/ton U,..ty P/ess | ISBN: 0691122849 | 2007 | PDF | 331 pages | 10,06 MB
P/ton U,..ty P/ess | ISBN: 0691122849 | 2007 | PDF | 331 pages | 10,06 MB
In the last decade, behavioral economics, borrowing from psychology and sociology to explain decisions inconsistent with traditional economics, has revolutionized the way economists view the world. But despite this general success, behavioral thinking has fundamentally transformed only one field of applied economics-finance. Peter Diamond and Hannu Vartiainen's Behavioral Economics and Its Applications argues that behavioral economics can have a similar impact in other fields of economics.
In this volume, some of the world's leading thinkers in behavioral economics and general economic theory make the case for a much greater use of behavioral ideas in six fields where these ideas have already proved useful but have not yet been fully incorporated--public economics, development, law and economics, health, wage determination, and organizational economics. The result is an attempt to set the agenda of an important development in economics--an agenda that will interest policymakers, sociologists, and psychologists as well as economists.
Contributors include Ian Ayres, B. Douglas Bernheim, Truman F. Bewley, Colin F. Camerer, Anne Case, Michael D. Cohen, Peter Diamond, Christoph Engel, Richard G. Frank, Jacob Glazer, Seppo Honkapohja, Christine Jolls, Botond Koszegi, Ulrike Malmendier, Sendhil Mullainathan, Antonio Rangel, Emmanuel Saez, Eldar Shafir, Sir Nicholas Stern, Jean Tirole, Hannu Vartiainen, and Timothy D. Wilson.
Basic Business Statistics (12th Edition) (repost)
Mark L. Berenson, "Basic Business Statistics (12th Edition)"
Pr ntice H l | 2011 | ISBN: 0132168383 | 890 pages | PDF | 53,9 MB
Pr ntice H l | 2011 | ISBN: 0132168383 | 890 pages | PDF | 53,9 MB
Berenson shows readers how statistics is used in each functional area of business. Basic Business Statistics shows the relevance of statistics by familiarizing readers with the statistical applications used in the business world, providing clear instructions for using statistical applications, and offering ample opportunities for practice. The twelfth edition has built on the application emphasis and provides enhanced coverage of statistics.
Business Math (9th Edition) (repost)
Cheryl Cleaves, "Business Math (9th Edition)"
Pre ice H all | ISBN: 0135108179 | 2011 | 874 pages | PDF | 23 MB
Pre ice H all | ISBN: 0135108179 | 2011 | 874 pages | PDF | 23 MB
Business Math (9th Edition) brings together all the math tools students need to successfully handle everyday business transactions, manage their personal finances, and start or operate a small business. Throughout, students learn math in familiar contexts they already care about. Conversational, easy to read, and exceptionally accessible, this text combines depth and breadth with practical examples and clear step-by-step instructions — all delivered flexibly to support multiple modes of teaching and learning.
Programing books
An Introduction to Object-Oriented Programming with Java,
5th Edition (repost)
|
C. Thomas Wu, "An Introduction to Object-Oriented Programming with Java, 5th Edition"
Mc...w-H..l Sc....e/E....ee..../Ma.. | 2009-03-24 | ISBN: 0073523305 | 1008 pages | PDF | 15 MB
Mc...w-H..l Sc....e/E....ee..../Ma.. | 2009-03-24 | ISBN: 0073523305 | 1008 pages | PDF | 15 MB
An Introduction to Object-Oriented Programming with Java takes a full-immersion approach to object-oriented programming. Proper object-oriented design practices are emphasized throughout the book. Students learn how to use the standard classes first, then learn to design their own classes.
Wu uses a gentler approach to teaching students how to design their own classes, separating the coverage into two chapters. GUI coverage is also located independently in the back of the book and can be covered if desired.
Wu also features a robust set of instructors' materials including PowerPoint slides, code samples, and quiz questions.
Wu uses a gentler approach to teaching students how to design their own classes, separating the coverage into two chapters. GUI coverage is also located independently in the back of the book and can be covered if desired.
Wu also features a robust set of instructors' materials including PowerPoint slides, code samples, and quiz questions.
Algorithms (4th Edition) (Repost)
Posted By : elodar | Date : 27 Jan 2012 15:49:12 | Comments : 0 |
Robert Sedgewick, Kevin Wayne, "Algorithms (4th Edition) (Repost)"
English | 2011-03-19 | ISBN: 032157351X | 976 pages | PDF | 12.6 mb
English | 2011-03-19 | ISBN: 032157351X | 976 pages | PDF | 12.6 mb
Essential Information about Algorithms and Data Structures
A Classic Reference
The latest version of Sedgewick’s best-selling series, reflecting an indispensable body of knowledge developed over the past several decades.
Data Mining: Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms: Volume 1:
Clustering, Association and Classification
Dawn E. Holmes, Lakhmi C. Jain, "Data Mining: Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms: Volume 1: Clustering, Association and Classification"
Publisher: S.ri...r | ISBN: 3642231659 | 2012 | PDF | 352 pages | 7 MB
Data Mining: Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms: Volume 2: Statistical, Bayesian, Time Series and other Theoretical Aspects
Dawn E. Holmes, Lakhmi C. Jain, "Data Mining: Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms: Volume 2: Statistical, Bayesian, Time Series and other Theoretical Aspects"
Publisher: S.ri...r | ISBN: 364223240X | 2012 | PDF | 264 pages | 7 MB
Data Mining: Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms: Volume 3: Statistical, Bayesian, Time Series and other Theoretical Aspects
Dawn E. Holmes, Lakhmi C. Jain, "Data Mining: Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms: Volume 3: Statistical, Bayesian, Time Series and other Theoretical Aspects"
Publisher: S.ri...r | ISBN: 3642231500 | 2012 | PDF | 380 pages | 7 MB
Data mining is one of the most rapidly growing research areas in computer science and statistics. In Volume 3 of this three volume series, we have brought together contributions from some of the most prestigious researchers in applied data mining. Areas of application covered are diverse and include healthcare and finance. Each of the chapters is self contained. Statisticians, applied scientists/ engineers and researchers in bioinformatics will find this volume valuable. Additionally, it provides a sourcebook for graduate students interested in the current direction of research in applied data mining.
Object-Oriented Software Engineering Using UML, Patterns, and Java, 3rd Edition (repost)
Bernd Bruegge, Allen H. Dutoit, "Object-Oriented Software Engineering Using UML, Patterns, and Java, 3rd Edition"
Pr.....e H..l | 2009 | ISBN: 0136061257 | 800 pages | PDF | 5,2 MB
Pr.....e H..l | 2009 | ISBN: 0136061257 | 800 pages | PDF | 5,2 MB
For courses in Software Engineering, Software Development, or Object-Oriented Design and Analysis at the Junior/Senior or Graduate level. This text can also be utilized in short technical courses or in short, intensive management courses.
Object-Oriented Software Engineering Using UML, Patterns, and Java, 3e, shows readers how to use both the principles of software engineering and the practices of various object-oriented tools, processes, and products.
Using a step-by-step case study to illustrate the concepts and topics in each chapter, Bruegge and Dutoit emphasize learning object-oriented software engineer through practical experience: readers can apply the techniques learned in class by implementing a real-world software project.
The third edition addresses new trends, in particular agile project management (Chapter 14 Project Management) and agile methodologies (Chapter 16 Methodologies).
"This is a well-written book using an object-oriented approach to describe an in-depth methodology for building software systems. Good examples are used throughout to illustrate concepts. The clear and lucid flow of the authors' writing enhances and contributes even mare to the didactic aspects of this book. — William Lively, Texas A&M University
"This is the best software engineering book that I have come across. I plan to use it at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. The book has numerous advantages . . . a wealth of good technical information, useful heuristics, and good advice. The book can be used effectively by both university programmers and by software engineering professionals. — Martin Purvis, University of Otago
вівторок, 7 лютого 2012 р.
Portfolio management
Вообще-то золото используется как защитный актив от инфляции, а не во время обвалов. В кризис оно тоже падает, хотя не так сильно, как акции или другие товары.
Во время обвалов есть только 2 защитных актива: это доллар и фьючерс на индекс волатильности.
И еще по поводу золота:
с января 1980 года до минимума 2000-го оно упало в 4 раза, тем не менее ежегодно ребалансируемый портфель из SP500 и золота в пропорции 50/50 обогнал в росте в 1.5 раза каждый из этих активов с 1973 года
Я бы не стал утверждать так категорично.
Для любителей краткосрочных спекуляций: почитайте книгу Ларри Вильямса "Долгосрочные секреты краткосрочной торговли".
У него описана отличная краткосрочная стратегия - он ее называет "пробой волатильности".
Если кратко - смысл в следующем:
вычисляем диапазон колебаний акции или фьючерса за предыдущий день (MAX - MIN цены), дожидаемся открытия рынка и ставим заявку на покупку, если от цены сегодняшнего открытия будет рост на 40% от вчерашнего диапазона колебаний. Закрываем позицию либо по стопу, либо на открытии следующего дня. Стоп для разных активов подбирается индивидуально.
На нашем рынке на многих голубых фишках работает замечательно.
Ну так возьми и сам посчитай - там же все данные приведены.
Все дело в регулярной ребалансировки портфеля. Без нее доходность действительно была бы некоторой средней от доходностей составляющих
Вот еще простой пример: портфель из индекса RTSI и металлического счета в золоте 50/50 (рублевая цена на золото определяется как Стоимость золота в долларах * Курс доллара к рублю / Количество грамм в унции). Фактически это портфель из 3-х активов: индекса РТС, золота в долларах и курса доллара к рублю.
Считаем с 30.11.1995 по 30.11.2011, ребалансируем раз в год 30 ноября:
RTSI - доходность 2086 %
Металлический счет в золоте - доходность 2996 %
Портфель - доходность 8182 %
Можете сами посчитать за любой другой период - данные с finam.ru и www.cbr.ru
Заранее не угадаешь, где будет годовой хай/лой.
По моим рассчетам, лучше всего ребалансировку делать 2 раза в год: в конце ноября и в конце апреля. Обычно годовые минимумы/максимумы бывают где-то в это время.
Причем в конце апреля долю портфеля в акциях (или фьючерсе на индекс) уменьшать до 20-30%, а долю в долларах, наоборот, увеличивать.
Во время обвалов есть только 2 защитных актива: это доллар и фьючерс на индекс волатильности.
И еще по поводу золота:
с января 1980 года до минимума 2000-го оно упало в 4 раза, тем не менее ежегодно ребалансируемый портфель из SP500 и золота в пропорции 50/50 обогнал в росте в 1.5 раза каждый из этих активов с 1973 года
Я бы не стал утверждать так категорично.
Для любителей краткосрочных спекуляций: почитайте книгу Ларри Вильямса "Долгосрочные секреты краткосрочной торговли".
У него описана отличная краткосрочная стратегия - он ее называет "пробой волатильности".
Если кратко - смысл в следующем:
вычисляем диапазон колебаний акции или фьючерса за предыдущий день (MAX - MIN цены), дожидаемся открытия рынка и ставим заявку на покупку, если от цены сегодняшнего открытия будет рост на 40% от вчерашнего диапазона колебаний. Закрываем позицию либо по стопу, либо на открытии следующего дня. Стоп для разных активов подбирается индивидуально.
На нашем рынке на многих голубых фишках работает замечательно.
Ну так возьми и сам посчитай - там же все данные приведены.
Все дело в регулярной ребалансировки портфеля. Без нее доходность действительно была бы некоторой средней от доходностей составляющих
Вот еще простой пример: портфель из индекса RTSI и металлического счета в золоте 50/50 (рублевая цена на золото определяется как Стоимость золота в долларах * Курс доллара к рублю / Количество грамм в унции). Фактически это портфель из 3-х активов: индекса РТС, золота в долларах и курса доллара к рублю.
Считаем с 30.11.1995 по 30.11.2011, ребалансируем раз в год 30 ноября:
RTSI - доходность 2086 %
Металлический счет в золоте - доходность 2996 %
Портфель - доходность 8182 %
Можете сами посчитать за любой другой период - данные с finam.ru и www.cbr.ru
Заранее не угадаешь, где будет годовой хай/лой.
По моим рассчетам, лучше всего ребалансировку делать 2 раза в год: в конце ноября и в конце апреля. Обычно годовые минимумы/максимумы бывают где-то в это время.
Причем в конце апреля долю портфеля в акциях (или фьючерсе на индекс) уменьшать до 20-30%, а долю в долларах, наоборот, увеличивать.
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