середа, 12 грудня 2012 р.

NoDoji trading stats

Trading for a living is not about feelings, it's about hard stats. Feelings are fine if you're taking a fixed amount of money you plan to lose to the casino to see if you can get lucky. The reason your emotions are getting in the way is because of how you feel about setups, for better or worse.

Trading for a living means combining setups and money management rules that place the odds in your favor over a large enough sample size to generate profits despite the random distribution of individual wins and losses.

I never "feel" an edge technically (except those "continuation in a very strong trend" setups). I "know" an edge technically. I "know" that based on the hard statistical data I've compiled for a given pattern in a given context that the odds are in my favor. I also know that the outcome of this individual trade will be random, but if I trade the same pattern/context over and over again, the net outcome of the randomly distributed individual outcomes will be positive.

I no longer care how the setup feels or how it feels once I'm in the trade, because feelings used to sabotage my profit potential badly. I'll never forget my friend and I taking a short trade together, both of us "feeling" that there was support at a nearby level as the trade moved in our favor, both of exiting quickly for .10 profit at the exact same moment, only to watch price immediately break and drop over 1.00 in minutes.

Wolf knows my trading well and can confirm that I am now much better at sitting with the discomfort come hell or high water until the market says loud and clear that the setup is no longer valid.

I can't emphasize enough that feelings have no place in trading. You do research, accrue knowledge, develop rules based on that knowledge, then hold your nose and buy or sell when (and only when) your rules tell you to.

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