http://www.tradingeconomics.com/interest-rates-list-by-country?c=major
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates-table/
середа, 23 листопада 2011 р.
вівторок, 15 листопада 2011 р.
Trading Systems from ET
Several traders here have provided full details of how they trade: Anekdoten (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=99283), Saliva (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=144884), SusanaDT (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...40&pagenumber=1). They've taken time to provide in great detail what they do.
Geez (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=148752) provided a journal of live calls last year demonstrating how a 1:2 risk:reward ratio using a relative strength/weakness with-trend strategy makes it possible for a 50% annual return in day trading quite likely when you follow this simplest of strategies with strong risk management. (I believe he ended the year with much greater than 50% return, but sadly his journal was spammed and he stopped posting.)
If you can read, put in some chart study and live screen time to memorize what price action patterns indicate most of the time, set rules for yourself and stick to them, you can get everything you need to be a profitable trader right here on ET for free.
Geez (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=148752) provided a journal of live calls last year demonstrating how a 1:2 risk:reward ratio using a relative strength/weakness with-trend strategy makes it possible for a 50% annual return in day trading quite likely when you follow this simplest of strategies with strong risk management. (I believe he ended the year with much greater than 50% return, but sadly his journal was spammed and he stopped posting.)
If you can read, put in some chart study and live screen time to memorize what price action patterns indicate most of the time, set rules for yourself and stick to them, you can get everything you need to be a profitable trader right here on ET for free.
Option trading-options spreads
experience is the culpit of anxiety trading.
human brain learns things by experience through association, generalization etc. driving a car most time is fun, but if you once had an accident, particularly serious one or almost killed you, you will never forget, when you pass that place again, you will pay particular attention to cars or yourself, you will be very nevous it seems you will have another one again.
trading is the same thing. when you win, you have fun. when you lose,even a small loss, next time when the similar situation occurs, you may freeze or hesitate or second guess a good trade(you do not want to get hurt again subconciously), ...
the only remedy is: accept the fact you will have losers, but do not put a too big bet enough to knock down your whole account ( a well predefined risk that you can accept or will not hurt you much, my rule is not affect my account liqidity: even I take that loss, I still can trade as usually), this will create severe anxiety. for example, a 5k account, you can take 50~100 buck loss per trade, will not have great impact on your account liqidity. if you take 1k loss, that will seriously threat your account survival.
actually, there is good trades in option with 50~100 bucks loss/risk. you just trade one lot penny option or using spread, easily limit your risk under this level. of course if you trade future, 100 bucks just several ticks, a random move will knock you out, so that is not suitable or you will be very nervous, if you are nervous, that means you lose objectivity and you can not trade that thing. take AAPL option, when you see most option price is very expensive compared to your account, but when spread strategy is employed, your risk can be easily defined to your acceptable level. spread methods is used to minimize option premium risk.
I trade future a lot, but late I found option is better. one, I can easily define my trading idea; second can clearly define my risk; third, I can adjust my size easily; fourth the most important is the leverage is far better than future, less money better reward, double/ten fold reward is easily achieved. with future, often my idea is right, but the market easily hit my stop loss ( I am right, but I lose), if I do not use stop loss, when the market trends long time against me, I lose more, so that puts me in a bad dilama: if I place a stop loss, I may lose with good idea because of market noises, if I do not place a stop loss, I may be totally wrong and lose big, so I must put a stop loss there. the stop loss thing makes me nervous, that seriously affect my trading reaction speed ( I need setups to initiate trade, not my sound judgement), for example, when in a uptrend, I bought EMA touching, but because of risk/setup definition, often I buy the thrust in order to put a stop loss (saw the low).
I normally trade ES/CL/NQ, but I found I can not easily define my risk because of volatilty, the reality is "right/wrong is vague, you can not exactly pindown where to drop/to rally". with my stop loss, I get hit easily or frequently. like this week, I saw ES has good support at 1220~1230, if I bought 1220, then use recent new low to place a stop loss, I may be stopped out at 1218.75 (former low is 1219.75). I bought 100lots of SPY 124 call with averaging price 0.93, sold at closing friday with 2.8, that is three times gain. but if I bought 9k ES, just two lot(overnight), or the best 4lot for intra-day, suppose I bought the lowest 1220, and out at friday closing 1263.75, I just net 43.75 points, or 2 times 50 and 43.75=4.5k gain, you may say ES is not risker than spy option, when you bought 9k ES not means you take 9k risk, in option 9k option may be worthless this friday (real risk),but in order to take real 9k risk in ES, you may need far larger margin (you may need trade 20lot, that needs a 100k account).
with no stop loss to consider, I am not nervious any more. I do not need frequently check the quote or worry about overnight/weekend adverse development (pay too much attention to market noises) to take my stop loss then late it is just some crap market noise. I can ignore those noises totally, focus on those good trades. I am happy. I do not over trade any more (try to recoup stop loss created loss, that greatly reduce the quality of my trades, most are impulsive, there is no sound thoughts).
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=230183&perpage=6&pagenumber=5
human brain learns things by experience through association, generalization etc. driving a car most time is fun, but if you once had an accident, particularly serious one or almost killed you, you will never forget, when you pass that place again, you will pay particular attention to cars or yourself, you will be very nevous it seems you will have another one again.
trading is the same thing. when you win, you have fun. when you lose,even a small loss, next time when the similar situation occurs, you may freeze or hesitate or second guess a good trade(you do not want to get hurt again subconciously), ...
the only remedy is: accept the fact you will have losers, but do not put a too big bet enough to knock down your whole account ( a well predefined risk that you can accept or will not hurt you much, my rule is not affect my account liqidity: even I take that loss, I still can trade as usually), this will create severe anxiety. for example, a 5k account, you can take 50~100 buck loss per trade, will not have great impact on your account liqidity. if you take 1k loss, that will seriously threat your account survival.
actually, there is good trades in option with 50~100 bucks loss/risk. you just trade one lot penny option or using spread, easily limit your risk under this level. of course if you trade future, 100 bucks just several ticks, a random move will knock you out, so that is not suitable or you will be very nervous, if you are nervous, that means you lose objectivity and you can not trade that thing. take AAPL option, when you see most option price is very expensive compared to your account, but when spread strategy is employed, your risk can be easily defined to your acceptable level. spread methods is used to minimize option premium risk.
I trade future a lot, but late I found option is better. one, I can easily define my trading idea; second can clearly define my risk; third, I can adjust my size easily; fourth the most important is the leverage is far better than future, less money better reward, double/ten fold reward is easily achieved. with future, often my idea is right, but the market easily hit my stop loss ( I am right, but I lose), if I do not use stop loss, when the market trends long time against me, I lose more, so that puts me in a bad dilama: if I place a stop loss, I may lose with good idea because of market noises, if I do not place a stop loss, I may be totally wrong and lose big, so I must put a stop loss there. the stop loss thing makes me nervous, that seriously affect my trading reaction speed ( I need setups to initiate trade, not my sound judgement), for example, when in a uptrend, I bought EMA touching, but because of risk/setup definition, often I buy the thrust in order to put a stop loss (saw the low).
I normally trade ES/CL/NQ, but I found I can not easily define my risk because of volatilty, the reality is "right/wrong is vague, you can not exactly pindown where to drop/to rally". with my stop loss, I get hit easily or frequently. like this week, I saw ES has good support at 1220~1230, if I bought 1220, then use recent new low to place a stop loss, I may be stopped out at 1218.75 (former low is 1219.75). I bought 100lots of SPY 124 call with averaging price 0.93, sold at closing friday with 2.8, that is three times gain. but if I bought 9k ES, just two lot(overnight), or the best 4lot for intra-day, suppose I bought the lowest 1220, and out at friday closing 1263.75, I just net 43.75 points, or 2 times 50 and 43.75=4.5k gain, you may say ES is not risker than spy option, when you bought 9k ES not means you take 9k risk, in option 9k option may be worthless this friday (real risk),but in order to take real 9k risk in ES, you may need far larger margin (you may need trade 20lot, that needs a 100k account).
with no stop loss to consider, I am not nervious any more. I do not need frequently check the quote or worry about overnight/weekend adverse development (pay too much attention to market noises) to take my stop loss then late it is just some crap market noise. I can ignore those noises totally, focus on those good trades. I am happy. I do not over trade any more (try to recoup stop loss created loss, that greatly reduce the quality of my trades, most are impulsive, there is no sound thoughts).
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=230183&perpage=6&pagenumber=5
NoDoji about trading plan
If you've done thorough research and backtesting, selected setups and defined trading rules based on probability offering you a statistical edge, then real-time qualitative assessments can lead to failure.
Qualitative assessments are made during the mathematical analysis phase (research and backtesting to develop the plan). The trading plan (business plan) is designed based on the quality setups you choose to trade. Because successful trading is the result of a statistical edge based on tossing the coin every time a pre-qualified setup presents, consistent profitability depends on trading all setups and managing them according to the plan.
Ask any struggling trader here who has an edge what their biggest problems are and I assure you the majority of them will fall into one of these categories: hesitating/failing to trade a setup (picking and choosing), taking profits smaller than target, moving stops to break even, moving stops further away inviting larger losses, getting impatient and jumping the gun on trades.
A proper trading plan doesn't allow allow this kind of micro-management. By trading that way, you're messing with your statistical edge. You're trading as if you believe you know what's going to happen next. You don't.
IMHO, qualitative assessments and necessary adjustments should be made at the end of the trading day, not while trading.
I'd have twice as much money in my account right now had I followed the original trading plan I developed last year without any real-time qualitative intervention on my part.
Qualitative assessments are made during the mathematical analysis phase (research and backtesting to develop the plan). The trading plan (business plan) is designed based on the quality setups you choose to trade. Because successful trading is the result of a statistical edge based on tossing the coin every time a pre-qualified setup presents, consistent profitability depends on trading all setups and managing them according to the plan.
Ask any struggling trader here who has an edge what their biggest problems are and I assure you the majority of them will fall into one of these categories: hesitating/failing to trade a setup (picking and choosing), taking profits smaller than target, moving stops to break even, moving stops further away inviting larger losses, getting impatient and jumping the gun on trades.
A proper trading plan doesn't allow allow this kind of micro-management. By trading that way, you're messing with your statistical edge. You're trading as if you believe you know what's going to happen next. You don't.
IMHO, qualitative assessments and necessary adjustments should be made at the end of the trading day, not while trading.
I'd have twice as much money in my account right now had I followed the original trading plan I developed last year without any real-time qualitative intervention on my part.
Option trader tip
I've been trading profitably for a for over 12yrs. At the beginning, was very lucky to have found a group that to be a member you had to prove consistency. Their mantra, one stock can make a living.
Today I trade only GOOG(traded POT before the 3:1 slit). This last week it had swings of 10.56, 6.11, 5.52, 7.77, 7.12, 5.82, 5.49. Using weekly options and only buying ATM(when you get good try synthetic L/S's and your ROI will skyrocket), assume you can capture 50% of each swing and with your ATM option you'd net 50% of that. So 49pts X.50 X.50 = $12.25X100= $1225 per contract, and GOOG ATM contracts average $500 over the week.
And, every turning point was a CCI divergence...it doesn't get easier than that
Today I trade only GOOG(traded POT before the 3:1 slit). This last week it had swings of 10.56, 6.11, 5.52, 7.77, 7.12, 5.82, 5.49. Using weekly options and only buying ATM(when you get good try synthetic L/S's and your ROI will skyrocket), assume you can capture 50% of each swing and with your ATM option you'd net 50% of that. So 49pts X.50 X.50 = $12.25X100= $1225 per contract, and GOOG ATM contracts average $500 over the week.
And, every turning point was a CCI divergence...it doesn't get easier than that
NoDoji about edge and confidence
05-29-11 08:30 PM
Defined a set of statistical edges, back-tested them manually, defined rules for entry/stop/target that placed the edges further in my favor (risk:reward), micromanaged the system instead of simply trusting and trading it, got really frustrated by the fact that my daily post-market analysis consistently demonstrated results 200% better (at minimum) than my discretionary results, and finally gave up trying to have 100% perfect trades and just traded the system, knowing that even the #1 team has wins, losses and ties.
As for restraint, I use a protective stop on every trade and I trade size that allows a "black swan" event to result in as much slippage as 100x my max stop loss (I believe that would be a limit down move) without reversing more than a couple months profit.
That mechanism was developed early on when I was sometimes overconfident and took on excessive risk. At that time I was not a consistently profitable trader.
When these disastrous trades were closed, I studied the charts to find clues as to why what I was so certain would happen failed to materialize. These really bad trades were all swing trades and all counter-trend; my day trading was always just fine because it either worked or didn't during the course of the day. I found I was entering a trade based on the intraday chart and price action, when my intention was to hold for a longer term move. When I studied the daily charts, I found that I was putting on these counter-trend swing trades at levels where the trend was consolidating for the next push or was showing no sign of a reversal whatsoever.
So, I wanted to learn how to be the trader on the other side of my bad trades. I wanted to be the one sitting on an unrealized gain of $2000, $4000, $6000 or more, not holding a loss that size and just hoping to get back to break even.
I learned to recognize trends and trend continuation signals (I was mistakenly interpreting these as signs of weakness in an uptrend or strength in a down trend), and eventually learned how to trade with the trend.
When you trade against a trend, you're fighting the #1 team. I imagine that's why so many traders gravitate toward this high risk tactic. It boosts our ego to try and beat the overconfident #1 team, to be able to say, "Look at these dumbasses buying way up here, I'll show them who the smart guy is."
Counter-trend, you're making the assumption you know approximately when price will turn based on indicators such as Keltners, Bollingers, stochastics, "it's too f*cking high to go any higher", etc. It can work beautifully for a long time, giving you a sense of invincibility, of having mastered the market. You come to believe that when price becomes overextended by at least X%, Y will always follow. You become so confident you put on excessive size, or continue to average down as price runs further. This is where that one bad trade can wipe out everything you've gained (or worse).
When you trade in the direction of a trend, the strongest team has your back. The moves are stronger and longer than counter-trend pullbacks, offering the opportunity for larger profits as well. The best part is the risk management. If you're positioned against the trend, price can remain overbought or oversold for days, weeks, even months before a strong pullback or a reversal occurs. This is a biggest danger of counter-trend trading. But in a trend, there are lines in the sand beyond which a trend reversal or very deep pullback is likely. You take your remaining profits (or a small loss, if you were late to the party) at these levels and wait for the next setup.
Quote from DEM BONES:
How were you able to create a healthy balance in confidence and restraint?
Defined a set of statistical edges, back-tested them manually, defined rules for entry/stop/target that placed the edges further in my favor (risk:reward), micromanaged the system instead of simply trusting and trading it, got really frustrated by the fact that my daily post-market analysis consistently demonstrated results 200% better (at minimum) than my discretionary results, and finally gave up trying to have 100% perfect trades and just traded the system, knowing that even the #1 team has wins, losses and ties.
As for restraint, I use a protective stop on every trade and I trade size that allows a "black swan" event to result in as much slippage as 100x my max stop loss (I believe that would be a limit down move) without reversing more than a couple months profit.
Quote from DEM BONES:
How did you develop a mechanism to avoid being overconfident and taking on excessive risk?
That mechanism was developed early on when I was sometimes overconfident and took on excessive risk. At that time I was not a consistently profitable trader.
When these disastrous trades were closed, I studied the charts to find clues as to why what I was so certain would happen failed to materialize. These really bad trades were all swing trades and all counter-trend; my day trading was always just fine because it either worked or didn't during the course of the day. I found I was entering a trade based on the intraday chart and price action, when my intention was to hold for a longer term move. When I studied the daily charts, I found that I was putting on these counter-trend swing trades at levels where the trend was consolidating for the next push or was showing no sign of a reversal whatsoever.
So, I wanted to learn how to be the trader on the other side of my bad trades. I wanted to be the one sitting on an unrealized gain of $2000, $4000, $6000 or more, not holding a loss that size and just hoping to get back to break even.
I learned to recognize trends and trend continuation signals (I was mistakenly interpreting these as signs of weakness in an uptrend or strength in a down trend), and eventually learned how to trade with the trend.
When you trade against a trend, you're fighting the #1 team. I imagine that's why so many traders gravitate toward this high risk tactic. It boosts our ego to try and beat the overconfident #1 team, to be able to say, "Look at these dumbasses buying way up here, I'll show them who the smart guy is."
Counter-trend, you're making the assumption you know approximately when price will turn based on indicators such as Keltners, Bollingers, stochastics, "it's too f*cking high to go any higher", etc. It can work beautifully for a long time, giving you a sense of invincibility, of having mastered the market. You come to believe that when price becomes overextended by at least X%, Y will always follow. You become so confident you put on excessive size, or continue to average down as price runs further. This is where that one bad trade can wipe out everything you've gained (or worse).
When you trade in the direction of a trend, the strongest team has your back. The moves are stronger and longer than counter-trend pullbacks, offering the opportunity for larger profits as well. The best part is the risk management. If you're positioned against the trend, price can remain overbought or oversold for days, weeks, even months before a strong pullback or a reversal occurs. This is a biggest danger of counter-trend trading. But in a trend, there are lines in the sand beyond which a trend reversal or very deep pullback is likely. You take your remaining profits (or a small loss, if you were late to the party) at these levels and wait for the next setup.
Bighog trading tips 3
From notebooks of trading tidbits collected over the years.
First one from a 1969 book on trading Commodities:
Rules can be forgotten! But once the trader has developed the ability to look at the major market symptoms and arrive at a valid judgement about it's technical health, he has (sorry, Nod, this was from 1969, ha) moved permanently into the elite group who put every confidence in skill and knowledge--- and let others depend on others and guesses and hunches.
Identify 1 or 2 tactics that consistently work, then refine them to result in highest probability within your own mindset of comfort, etc. Some of the best traders are successful because they trade only 1 strategy. You work your strat while controlling risk. Belveal, 1969.
Never SELL a dull mkt short.
You're either ahead of the mkt or you're running behind it. For most trading being late with the order can turn a possible profit into a loss. It's better to anticipate a trend change, a pivot level etc and be wrong while taking a small loss than it is to "wait" for a confirmation and be sure to have a small chance of winning. " I've never been a successful chaser of price." Kaufman
Anticipate---- Be ahead of the crowd.
The most fundamental concept is how to recognize what a chart looks like just prior to an important breakout.
When you think you can not win - you are done.
Playing defense when you should be playing offense.
You must be able to handle small losses. Losing is just part of the game.
No, no, no, NO hesitation at your numbers. It is not an option.
If winning trades should work immediately, then it must mean losers should be immediately dumped.
Is this trade you are in now getting hotter or colder? Always trade with reference points. This works within your technical tragets for a profit or a loss. Always have a worst case STOP and the only choice for the stop is to pull the trade out quicker.
STOPS are like taxi fare for a blind date. If he is a loser you can still get home safely.
First one from a 1969 book on trading Commodities:
Rules can be forgotten! But once the trader has developed the ability to look at the major market symptoms and arrive at a valid judgement about it's technical health, he has (sorry, Nod, this was from 1969, ha) moved permanently into the elite group who put every confidence in skill and knowledge--- and let others depend on others and guesses and hunches.
Identify 1 or 2 tactics that consistently work, then refine them to result in highest probability within your own mindset of comfort, etc. Some of the best traders are successful because they trade only 1 strategy. You work your strat while controlling risk. Belveal, 1969.
Never SELL a dull mkt short.
You're either ahead of the mkt or you're running behind it. For most trading being late with the order can turn a possible profit into a loss. It's better to anticipate a trend change, a pivot level etc and be wrong while taking a small loss than it is to "wait" for a confirmation and be sure to have a small chance of winning. " I've never been a successful chaser of price." Kaufman
Anticipate---- Be ahead of the crowd.
The most fundamental concept is how to recognize what a chart looks like just prior to an important breakout.
When you think you can not win - you are done.
Playing defense when you should be playing offense.
You must be able to handle small losses. Losing is just part of the game.
No, no, no, NO hesitation at your numbers. It is not an option.
If winning trades should work immediately, then it must mean losers should be immediately dumped.
Is this trade you are in now getting hotter or colder? Always trade with reference points. This works within your technical tragets for a profit or a loss. Always have a worst case STOP and the only choice for the stop is to pull the trade out quicker.
STOPS are like taxi fare for a blind date. If he is a loser you can still get home safely.
Bighog trading tips 2
Well, i like that. Congrats, when you said a consolidation is what a 'continuation" trader sees i am willing to shake hands.
My way of thinking as a trend follow person is quite simple. I see a move either way and immediately think "TREND". Ok, i see the momentum stall and usually will grab that profit with the intention to get back in with the trend because experience has taught me the odds say a continuation is in order. Since a consolidation sideways move is considered NORMAL i do not give fading a thought. Many good trends might not even show much consolidation at all, but will show a retrace. I do not consider a retrace, as long as it does not surpass 50% of the previous legs move a reversal signal where by that time many other newer players will be filled in the opposite direction and get hammered when the odds work in my favor and the trend continues on for another leg before repeating the whole process again. Yes, i do stay alert for a possible reversal signal which will nullify the TREND. But i never look to just fade a move for that singular purpose.
No signal is perfect, thats well known. As traders we find our own way. I prefer to trade with a crowd of like traders and in my world that means the odds are in my favor. If the odds were not in my favor, how else could i assume i was playing the same game? Fading seems to be a game the second stringers like to play because they have yet to fully understand the mechanics of trend following. If it works for you, so be it.
Ok, i adjusted your grade. Good answer as it will give some others fodder to consider.
PS: Cold also in Michigan, but not to bad. The Holidays are over and usually after the Super bowl is over winter gets very boring. This year we have the Winter Olympics. That will be great watching, especially here because we get Canadian TV stations also and Canada is not about bragging constantly about how fantastic their guys and gals are. American tv, even in sports is a lot of bragging up some idiot and waving the flag instead of a sporting event to enjoy.
My way of thinking as a trend follow person is quite simple. I see a move either way and immediately think "TREND". Ok, i see the momentum stall and usually will grab that profit with the intention to get back in with the trend because experience has taught me the odds say a continuation is in order. Since a consolidation sideways move is considered NORMAL i do not give fading a thought. Many good trends might not even show much consolidation at all, but will show a retrace. I do not consider a retrace, as long as it does not surpass 50% of the previous legs move a reversal signal where by that time many other newer players will be filled in the opposite direction and get hammered when the odds work in my favor and the trend continues on for another leg before repeating the whole process again. Yes, i do stay alert for a possible reversal signal which will nullify the TREND. But i never look to just fade a move for that singular purpose.
No signal is perfect, thats well known. As traders we find our own way. I prefer to trade with a crowd of like traders and in my world that means the odds are in my favor. If the odds were not in my favor, how else could i assume i was playing the same game? Fading seems to be a game the second stringers like to play because they have yet to fully understand the mechanics of trend following. If it works for you, so be it.
Ok, i adjusted your grade.
Good answer as it will give some others fodder to consider.PS: Cold also in Michigan, but not to bad. The Holidays are over and usually after the Super bowl is over winter gets very boring. This year we have the Winter Olympics. That will be great watching, especially here because we get Canadian TV stations also and Canada is not about bragging constantly about how fantastic their guys and gals are. American tv, even in sports is a lot of bragging up some idiot and waving the flag instead of a sporting event to enjoy.
Bighog trading tips 1
I would suggest sticking with the ES sim for awhile. I might also suggest you do a couple things for practice to help the confidence curve increase.
Get well acquainted with actual (sim) order placement and exit based on a liminited # of entrys based on BO's, call it trend following if that sounds better. So you now have the strategy figured out, you will trade for the gravy train runs.
Your tactics to carry out the strategy will be well worn and well used basic stuff that have been around forever. Price can only go up or down so thats your battle plan.
The beauty of the simple tactics for each daily battle mission is they work and will continue to work forever in a game of chance. Losers are expected in any battle plan. There will be no walking on rose pedels and claiming victory before the battle gets started. War is hell!!!!
Your basic tactics will include rather benign and almost automatic beginnings to get your feet wetter.
Even if you do not want to trade the +6/-6 ORB in live trading later i still would like you to do it as practice. Why?
ORB for the 1st hour is all about discipline. No discipline = NO confidence, no confidence = NO courage. It is that simple.
Trading the ORB for an hour will work on puking out losers and getting right back in to catch a possible run. The ORB will teach you to recognize whipsaws rather than just having them slap us traders around with no respect. You will learn how to avoid whipsaws by maybe waiting for the 1st hour BO if you choose, but the deal is you will learn how to avoid getting chopped up. You will learn how to stay in a "run" right off the open also.........thats the goal of the whole deal. Discipline is not only about avoiding losers, discipline is about everything in a game of chance. ORB will FORCE you to take action when it is needed, it forces you to be in the moment, it forces you to take the trade. Thats what you need, you need a SGT there yelling at you, getting on your case. "For christ sake NOD, why in the fricking hell did you hesitate at your number? Do you think the god dam mkt is going to wait for your slow butt? We expect better from you...........tomorrow you best shape up and take every signal or no weekend pass, you GOT THAT? "
You need to toughen up, you need to get serious. This is not a game of marbles in the schoolyard. (i am showing my age) This is a game that every Tom, Dick and Harriet would love to beat. You are close but have not received the cigar yet. You have a trigger problem because you have it in your head this is harder than stocks. Stocks are not the problem, the problem is fear of losing. get over that in the sim to some extent and live trading will be easier AFTER you practice the tactics.
Support, resist, retraces, hooks, reversals of the main trend thats what you want to focus on. Forget scalping for small potatoes, you can scalp all you want later after you get the confidence under control. That will come when you nail some runs like this mornings initial drop. That was the "meat" of the day. Practice discipline, practice first in a mechanical manner such as, take EVERY signal, place a rock solid STOP LOSS at 6 ticks as max and allow yourself to get out sooner but NEVER LATER. Take ALL trades, no fear, no thoughts, think it is discipline and conditioning only. It is NOT money. Practice discipline by staying in a winner, work on that , it is important, learn how to ring the register and jump right back in when the trend has not shown a reversal signal. Learn RETRACE action.......thats hugely important, most rookies view all retraces as reversals and get slapped around as soon as the prior trend continues on.
After the 1st hour ORB trade, switch to regular TA based on levels, tests etc.
You owe it to yourself to make these changes and get more discipline, pulling the trigg on signals is also discipline..............discipline to go for the brass ring, discipline to make a shitload of cash later.
Go for it.
Get well acquainted with actual (sim) order placement and exit based on a liminited # of entrys based on BO's, call it trend following if that sounds better. So you now have the strategy figured out, you will trade for the gravy train runs.
Your tactics to carry out the strategy will be well worn and well used basic stuff that have been around forever. Price can only go up or down so thats your battle plan.
The beauty of the simple tactics for each daily battle mission is they work and will continue to work forever in a game of chance. Losers are expected in any battle plan. There will be no walking on rose pedels and claiming victory before the battle gets started. War is hell!!!!
Your basic tactics will include rather benign and almost automatic beginnings to get your feet wetter.
Even if you do not want to trade the +6/-6 ORB in live trading later i still would like you to do it as practice. Why?
ORB for the 1st hour is all about discipline. No discipline = NO confidence, no confidence = NO courage. It is that simple.
Trading the ORB for an hour will work on puking out losers and getting right back in to catch a possible run. The ORB will teach you to recognize whipsaws rather than just having them slap us traders around with no respect. You will learn how to avoid whipsaws by maybe waiting for the 1st hour BO if you choose, but the deal is you will learn how to avoid getting chopped up. You will learn how to stay in a "run" right off the open also.........thats the goal of the whole deal. Discipline is not only about avoiding losers, discipline is about everything in a game of chance. ORB will FORCE you to take action when it is needed, it forces you to be in the moment, it forces you to take the trade. Thats what you need, you need a SGT there yelling at you, getting on your case. "For christ sake NOD, why in the fricking hell did you hesitate at your number? Do you think the god dam mkt is going to wait for your slow butt? We expect better from you...........tomorrow you best shape up and take every signal or no weekend pass, you GOT THAT? "
You need to toughen up, you need to get serious. This is not a game of marbles in the schoolyard. (i am showing my age) This is a game that every Tom, Dick and Harriet would love to beat. You are close but have not received the cigar yet. You have a trigger problem because you have it in your head this is harder than stocks. Stocks are not the problem, the problem is fear of losing. get over that in the sim to some extent and live trading will be easier AFTER you practice the tactics.
Support, resist, retraces, hooks, reversals of the main trend thats what you want to focus on. Forget scalping for small potatoes, you can scalp all you want later after you get the confidence under control. That will come when you nail some runs like this mornings initial drop. That was the "meat" of the day. Practice discipline, practice first in a mechanical manner such as, take EVERY signal, place a rock solid STOP LOSS at 6 ticks as max and allow yourself to get out sooner but NEVER LATER. Take ALL trades, no fear, no thoughts, think it is discipline and conditioning only. It is NOT money. Practice discipline by staying in a winner, work on that , it is important, learn how to ring the register and jump right back in when the trend has not shown a reversal signal. Learn RETRACE action.......thats hugely important, most rookies view all retraces as reversals and get slapped around as soon as the prior trend continues on.
After the 1st hour ORB trade, switch to regular TA based on levels, tests etc.
You owe it to yourself to make these changes and get more discipline, pulling the trigg on signals is also discipline..............discipline to go for the brass ring, discipline to make a shitload of cash later.
Go for it.
пʼятниця, 4 листопада 2011 р.
Trader path
Trading is hardcore......
It will test you with every new trade, every second you are in the trade......
If you want to succeed, you must do everything on your own.
Forget all the books and seminars and stuff in forums, you have learned --- and start to think for yourself and analyze the markets.
1. You must becom a scientist, to research the price behaviour.
2. you must create trading plans.
3. you must backtest your plans, with over hundreds of examles.
4. you must trade them in real time.
5. you must always learn your own rules and try to understand them.
6. you must start to trade with your own real money.
7. you must face the greed and fear, what comes, when you trade with your real money.
8. you must master the discipline quest.
9. you must train yourself everyday. pschological and strategies backtesting.
10. you must feel good about it.
11. you must understand you are now a constant money making trader.
12. you must make money and safe money.
This is hardcore !!!
If you start now, doing this fulltime, it will take you easily another 4 years.
Thats my way, its the only way.
Good luck
It will test you with every new trade, every second you are in the trade......
If you want to succeed, you must do everything on your own.
Forget all the books and seminars and stuff in forums, you have learned --- and start to think for yourself and analyze the markets.
1. You must becom a scientist, to research the price behaviour.
2. you must create trading plans.
3. you must backtest your plans, with over hundreds of examles.
4. you must trade them in real time.
5. you must always learn your own rules and try to understand them.
6. you must start to trade with your own real money.
7. you must face the greed and fear, what comes, when you trade with your real money.
8. you must master the discipline quest.
9. you must train yourself everyday. pschological and strategies backtesting.
10. you must feel good about it.
11. you must understand you are now a constant money making trader.
12. you must make money and safe money.
This is hardcore !!!
If you start now, doing this fulltime, it will take you easily another 4 years.
Thats my way, its the only way.
Good luck
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