вівторок, 15 листопада 2011 р.

NoDoji about trading plan

If you've done thorough research and backtesting, selected setups and defined trading rules based on probability offering you a statistical edge, then real-time qualitative assessments can lead to failure.

Qualitative assessments are made during the mathematical analysis phase (research and backtesting to develop the plan). The trading plan (business plan) is designed based on the quality setups you choose to trade. Because successful trading is the result of a statistical edge based on tossing the coin every time a pre-qualified setup presents, consistent profitability depends on trading all setups and managing them according to the plan.

Ask any struggling trader here who has an edge what their biggest problems are and I assure you the majority of them will fall into one of these categories: hesitating/failing to trade a setup (picking and choosing), taking profits smaller than target, moving stops to break even, moving stops further away inviting larger losses, getting impatient and jumping the gun on trades.

A proper trading plan doesn't allow allow this kind of micro-management. By trading that way, you're messing with your statistical edge. You're trading as if you believe you know what's going to happen next. You don't.

IMHO, qualitative assessments and necessary adjustments should be made at the end of the trading day, not while trading.

I'd have twice as much money in my account right now had I followed the original trading plan I developed last year without any real-time qualitative intervention on my part.

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