Registered: May 2008
Posts: 7803
12-02-12 05:38 PM
Quote from mrnate22:
I'm not saying 90% of my trades are profitable.. In fact, most of my trades are losers because of my impatience, overtrading and so forth..
What I'm saying is I can spot trades where I know 90% of the time, it's gonna work.. unfortunately, I'm so impatient that I trade other crap setups instead.. and what I'm asking for help.. I have no problem in technical stuff, it's the mental where I'm horrible at..
You're mired in a gambler's mindset. Every trade is brand new, anything can happen, and there's a random distribution of wins and losses among the trade setups that constitute your edge. The fact that you FEEL 90% certain about the outcomes of technical setups in an environment where 90% win rates belong to professional institutional traders (HFT, iBanks, hedge funds that blow up every few years and start fresh, etc.) tells me that you suffer from confirmation bias; you remember the setups that work and conveniently forget the same setups that fail.
There was a setup where I got trapped into losing trades a couple times and I was ready to place a filter on this pattern to eliminate it from my trading plan. But I've learned that stats derived from actual research reveals the market's reality, and prove or disprove the "reality" manufactured in my mind based on a few personal experiences. When I did the research of the outcomes of every appearance of this particular setup over a period of months, I found that it had 55% success rate and when a contextual filter was added the success rate improved to 65%. Yet in my mind it FELT like a 90% failing setup.
If you really want help, do the work:
1. Do you have a trading plan based on research and hard stats (demonstrating an edge) that precisely describes the setups, what triggers a trade entry, and how the stop placement (or averaging process) and profit-taking are to be managed?
If no, do the work and put a real plan together.
If yes,
2. Have you practiced applying it in a simulated account until the simulated results approximately match the profits your edge should be producing based on your research?
If no, practice until you can follow your plan.
If yes,
3. Seek help from a professional trading psychologist, because you've made it clear that you're not trading in line with your plan.
I don't think your problem is impatience; I think it's that you believe you can predict the market based on selective after-the-fact cataloging of price action.
Немає коментарів:
Дописати коментар