Mr Forex about order flow

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pdat100 In my eyes, there are actually two questions: The first is the one most dealt with here, how do we recognize the move with or without access to the tape?

By monitoring/calculating inst. benchmarks on different time periods.
Here you can see their intentions on specific dynamic price levels.
And that is where you also want jump on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pdat100 And, second, once recognized (we can't know how deep is the iceberg), are we to stay out of the market or try to fade/shade - as the maneuver can sometimes be fast and sharp and other times long and persistent. Now, here's the thing, even if you recognized the iceberg, you would still need to assess its impact on price (PA). Actually I would argue that this is the more complex question.

The procedure is:
if the institution(s) want buy f.e. the YEN and have a deadline (3 hours) for order execution, it can go like that:

enough liquidity available: normal price impact,smooth price action/impact
less liquidity: price rallys,orders get executed more often on smaller time periods

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pdat100 In fact, same goes for options expiration plays. If only one side drives the price (to or away from the strike price) that would have been easy. Alas, in practice, what you see around the strike areas is a fight between two or more elephants. How can anyone know in advance which side is to prevail?

I don't watch options.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pdat100 I would argue that this is the more important issue: a solid set of criteria to assess an institutional move impact on price. Are we back in VSA realm or what?

No VSA.
You mostly don't get favorable prices because the move has already started.

http://corp.bankofamerica.com/public/public.portal?_pd_page_label=equities/ets/agencyalgo