Orderflow Sniper |
Leon,
Topherhk88 has by far the best advice on here. Virteks has perhaps the worst. Now I do not want to pick on Virteks (too much), but what he writes captures the mindset of the retail Forex loser. What is missing from Virteks thought process, and what is highlighted in Topher's, is the concept of an edge.
The forex loser believes that everything you need is here at FF (or babypips). He believes that he can just plow through threads and get enough "opinions" about the market that he will be profitable. He thinks that because he read that a "trend is your friend", then went on to read Jacko's method or something, that he can now start retiring because it looks so easy. He also believes that if one system does not work, he can simply move on to another one. A loser believes that if he has been trading for 2 months and still has an account, he is being consistently profitable. A loser believes that back testing is a waste of time, or at most he will scroll back a few months and just eyeball his system. This is called shitty back testing. A loser believes that anyone can make it in forex.
Now, I know you don't want to hear all about losers. There are plenty of "Top Ten Reasons Losers Lose" threads. But I thought I would highlight some relevant reasons here. So anyway, how do you become a winner?
Again, Topher sheds some light on the importance of an edge. Now I know that "edge" is just another forex term thrown around, but what most traders do not understand is that your edge is the foundation of your system, and everything else is used to augment and exploit that edge. What you find on babypips and FF is the "everything else". Most of this "everything else" information fails to produce profits on its own because false edges are identified through self-fulfillment of these methods; but there is little, if any, edge behind them.
The reason edges are not found so easily on public forums is because a real edge would crumble if made public (assuming the readers were smart enough to use the edge given to them
). An edge is based on information that very few others know, but it can be implemented in a system that many others use. A breakout trader will use the same breakout formation that many others did, but his edge might keep him in long enough to make more profit, or it take him out before price turns around, or put him in the trade just a tad sooner, or identify a false breakout faster. Everyone saw the same formation and traded it. A handful got lucky, a few were successful.
You are fed up with all the "grail is in the mind" bullshit. This is because (or at least my theory) when a breakout pattern that everyone sees generates profit for only a few, it is easy for the system seller to say that, “the system is good (see I was profitable!), but it is YOU who sucks.” This is of course true, ie the trader probably does suck, but then again so does an edgeless system. A bad system will fail because it is bad, not because a weak trader traded it. A weak trader who trades a bad system will be forced to bend his discipline, and then be yelled at for breaking his rules. Hence the huge psychology movement in trading. Great psychological discipline and money management used on a bad system will only slow the bleed. You will ultimately fail if you are not exploiting a proven edge.
That being said, a trader does need to use his mind. I am a James16 member and my favorite section on that site is the psychology section. What I mean is, a good system will indeed fail if a weak trader trades it. A trader who finds, develops, back tests, and uses his own edge will trust it. A trader who trusts his system will be less prone to trade against it. This equals discipline.
So in search of the next step in your trading, I would recommend starting here. Look around at some traders who you deem successful, and try to identify what their edge is, or at least where it lies. Trend traders tend to find edges in their exits, while news traders find it in their entries. I personally exploit market inefficiencies through mispricing and crowd overreaction. Any successful trader should be able to tell you where his edge is = why his system works.
This is still no new information to you, I am sure. But again, this is what you get on a public forum. You get hints, pointers, suggestions, and vague concepts. There is great information on this site, but it is only the beginning. You need to be an expert in your field. This is why I do not trust someone who says trading is easy, and I hesitate when they claim it is simple. Keep it simple is a common phrase, but I believe it is misinterpreted. Many take the KISS concept and think that means they can be market morons, that they do not HAVE to know about price discovery, market participants, central bank interventions, orderflow, etc. True, they may make a little money without understanding why the market is moving, but how long do you think that will last. Talk to any trader who has made money consistently for over 10 years and they can tell you more about what influences the market than any website can. I strive to understand the complexities of trading. KISS can be applied to the system itself, meaning do not cloud your trading with so many rules and regulations that you only get one signal a year. However, KISS is by no means an excuse to be ignorant and lazy about this profession you have decided uptake. If reading a 650 page book on market microstructure seems too daunting and boring to the pursuit of success, maybe you need to reconsider why you are here in the first place.
With all of that being said, one possible route for you to take is to stop reading, get away from this website, and just trade for a while. Another component of success is experience. When you wake up in the morning and turn on your computer, where do you go first? The chart? Or this website? If you are trading from a chart (most, here do), then allow the chart to be your primary influence, not this website. Open the chart and interpret the data BEFORE jumping on the net to see what is going on. How many years have you been lurking around this site? Of that time, how many trades have you actually taken? You can still take trades without a system (demoing of course), but just get in the habit of making decisions about price movement, then track those decisions and the outcomes that occurred. Chart time is valuable, and you must manage your time to incorporate that.
Alright alright, I’ll shut up now. Hopefully I will have given you a few things to chew on. Now, never trust what you read. Second guess what I tell you and go try to prove me wrong. The process of discovering truth in trading will teach you a few things, and if you do prove me wrong, then I may benefit as well.
Good luck.
Topherhk88 has by far the best advice on here. Virteks has perhaps the worst. Now I do not want to pick on Virteks (too much), but what he writes captures the mindset of the retail Forex loser. What is missing from Virteks thought process, and what is highlighted in Topher's, is the concept of an edge.
The forex loser believes that everything you need is here at FF (or babypips). He believes that he can just plow through threads and get enough "opinions" about the market that he will be profitable. He thinks that because he read that a "trend is your friend", then went on to read Jacko's method or something, that he can now start retiring because it looks so easy. He also believes that if one system does not work, he can simply move on to another one. A loser believes that if he has been trading for 2 months and still has an account, he is being consistently profitable. A loser believes that back testing is a waste of time, or at most he will scroll back a few months and just eyeball his system. This is called shitty back testing. A loser believes that anyone can make it in forex.
Now, I know you don't want to hear all about losers. There are plenty of "Top Ten Reasons Losers Lose" threads. But I thought I would highlight some relevant reasons here. So anyway, how do you become a winner?
Again, Topher sheds some light on the importance of an edge. Now I know that "edge" is just another forex term thrown around, but what most traders do not understand is that your edge is the foundation of your system, and everything else is used to augment and exploit that edge. What you find on babypips and FF is the "everything else". Most of this "everything else" information fails to produce profits on its own because false edges are identified through self-fulfillment of these methods; but there is little, if any, edge behind them.
The reason edges are not found so easily on public forums is because a real edge would crumble if made public (assuming the readers were smart enough to use the edge given to them
). An edge is based on information that very few others know, but it can be implemented in a system that many others use. A breakout trader will use the same breakout formation that many others did, but his edge might keep him in long enough to make more profit, or it take him out before price turns around, or put him in the trade just a tad sooner, or identify a false breakout faster. Everyone saw the same formation and traded it. A handful got lucky, a few were successful.You are fed up with all the "grail is in the mind" bullshit. This is because (or at least my theory) when a breakout pattern that everyone sees generates profit for only a few, it is easy for the system seller to say that, “the system is good (see I was profitable!), but it is YOU who sucks.” This is of course true, ie the trader probably does suck, but then again so does an edgeless system. A bad system will fail because it is bad, not because a weak trader traded it. A weak trader who trades a bad system will be forced to bend his discipline, and then be yelled at for breaking his rules. Hence the huge psychology movement in trading. Great psychological discipline and money management used on a bad system will only slow the bleed. You will ultimately fail if you are not exploiting a proven edge.
That being said, a trader does need to use his mind. I am a James16 member and my favorite section on that site is the psychology section. What I mean is, a good system will indeed fail if a weak trader trades it. A trader who finds, develops, back tests, and uses his own edge will trust it. A trader who trusts his system will be less prone to trade against it. This equals discipline.
So in search of the next step in your trading, I would recommend starting here. Look around at some traders who you deem successful, and try to identify what their edge is, or at least where it lies. Trend traders tend to find edges in their exits, while news traders find it in their entries. I personally exploit market inefficiencies through mispricing and crowd overreaction. Any successful trader should be able to tell you where his edge is = why his system works.
This is still no new information to you, I am sure. But again, this is what you get on a public forum. You get hints, pointers, suggestions, and vague concepts. There is great information on this site, but it is only the beginning. You need to be an expert in your field. This is why I do not trust someone who says trading is easy, and I hesitate when they claim it is simple. Keep it simple is a common phrase, but I believe it is misinterpreted. Many take the KISS concept and think that means they can be market morons, that they do not HAVE to know about price discovery, market participants, central bank interventions, orderflow, etc. True, they may make a little money without understanding why the market is moving, but how long do you think that will last. Talk to any trader who has made money consistently for over 10 years and they can tell you more about what influences the market than any website can. I strive to understand the complexities of trading. KISS can be applied to the system itself, meaning do not cloud your trading with so many rules and regulations that you only get one signal a year. However, KISS is by no means an excuse to be ignorant and lazy about this profession you have decided uptake. If reading a 650 page book on market microstructure seems too daunting and boring to the pursuit of success, maybe you need to reconsider why you are here in the first place.
With all of that being said, one possible route for you to take is to stop reading, get away from this website, and just trade for a while. Another component of success is experience. When you wake up in the morning and turn on your computer, where do you go first? The chart? Or this website? If you are trading from a chart (most, here do), then allow the chart to be your primary influence, not this website. Open the chart and interpret the data BEFORE jumping on the net to see what is going on. How many years have you been lurking around this site? Of that time, how many trades have you actually taken? You can still take trades without a system (demoing of course), but just get in the habit of making decisions about price movement, then track those decisions and the outcomes that occurred. Chart time is valuable, and you must manage your time to incorporate that.
Alright alright, I’ll shut up now. Hopefully I will have given you a few things to chew on. Now, never trust what you read. Second guess what I tell you and go try to prove me wrong. The process of discovering truth in trading will teach you a few things, and if you do prove me wrong, then I may benefit as well.
Good luck.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2383484#post2383484
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